Turnout may hit new low in '09 elections

"Last election, we predicted 65%, but this time we're predicting less," says pollster.

By HAVIV RETTIG GUR
ballots 224.88 (photo credit: Ariel Jerozolimski)
ballots 224.88
(photo credit: Ariel Jerozolimski)
Though there are few hard numbers to go by ahead of February's elections, experts are predicting possibly the lowest voter turnout yet for an Israeli parliamentary vote, hovering at or just above the 60 percent mark. "In the last election, we predicted 65% turnout, but this election we're predicting lower," says Offer Levy, managing director of the Tel Aviv-based polling company New Wave Research. The actual figure in 2006 was 62.5%. It's still too early to obtain relevant data for expected turnout out of polling data, says Levy, but "qualitative" research has shown "a high level of exasperation among the public and a general feeling that all the politicians are the same, and that voting cannot meaningfully change the country's situation." Dr. Yariv Ben-Eliezer, an expert in political marketing at IDC Herzliya, agrees. "We don't have scientific studies yet, but you can sense from the public debate that there's a real feeling among Israelis that they are led by criminals, that corruption among the politicians cancels out what they decide. Clearly, that will affect turnout for the worse." Kadima MK Yoel Hasson has twice tried to pass a bill meant to increase voter turnout by taking away from nonvoters the paid vacation status of Election Day. Twice this year his bill was hindered by smaller parties fearing their power would be curtailed with higher turnout. But despite his efforts to increase voter participating, Hasson disagrees with the experts' pessimistic predictions. "I don't accept that people can't tell the difference between the parties. Those who think there's no difference between [Kadima head Tzipi] Livni, [Likud chairman Binyamin] Netanyahu and [Labor leader] Ehud Barak aren't living in this country. There are huge differences between them." These differences, and the "head-to-head battle between Livni and Netanyahu" predicted in the polls, "will make the elections interesting, and will get people out to vote," he predicted.