The geostrategic achievements of Azerbaijan and the TANAP project
Within the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan, with its natural gas and oil resources, is of particular importance in terms of energy as a key supplier for Western markets.
By BAYRAM ALIYEVURKISH PRESIDENT Tayyip Erdogan and his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev attend a ceremony to mark the completion of the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), in Edirne Turkey, last month. (photo credit: MURAT CETINMUHURDAR/PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
During the last two decades of 20th century, energy did not receive much attention from the international community – with the exception of the Gulf wars – due to relatively low prices. At the beginning of next millennium, this low evaluation of energy began to change when oil and gas prices started to rise considerably in 1999. In following years, especially between 2003 and 2006, global oil prices doubled. Military planners and foreign policy specialists have now taken renewed interest in so-called oil politics, bringing a special interest to the intersection point of geopolitics and geo-economics, which leads to geo-strategies.As a post-Soviet region, the South Caucasus countries of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia interact in an arena in which entrenched conflicts interplay with relations with international actors, including Russia, Iran, the US and Turkey. This is due in no small part to the Caspian basin region’s importance for these international actors; the South Caucasus and Central Asia contains about 3%-4% of the world’s oil reserves and 4%-6% of the world’s gas reserves.Within the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan, with its natural gas and oil resources, is of particular importance in terms of energy as a key supplier for Western markets. In addition, the South Caucasus as a whole represents a vital east-west transit region for Central Asian energy resources. Perhaps the most significant project, therefore, for Azerbaijan’s future influence in the region – and beyond – is TANAP (Trans-Anatolian Gas pipeline).Signing of the TANAP project between Turkey and Azerbaijan on June 26, 2012, was one of the strategically important events of the last decade for Azerbaijan. Joined countries will enhance their geopolitical importance with the implementation of this Azerbaijan-initiated TANAP project.Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, during his speech at the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers on results of the socio-economic development in 2012, assessed the project as the second most remarkable and most successful in the history of independent Azerbaijan. Of the 16 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani natural gas will be delivered to Turkey. Some shares of it will be transferred to the European Union. The TANAP project was opened in June 2018 and was connected to Europe in November 2019.It can easily be said that TANAP will have enough capability to change geopolitical equilibrium in favor of Azerbaijan and other participating countries at the region. With the opening of TANAP, Azerbaijan’s importance for Western countries is expected to increase noticeably.BAKU LOOKS set to continue to develop cooperation with Tbilisi and Ankara, while Yerevan remains out of the picture. Isolation of Armenia from the energy projects will give a chance to Azerbaijan to provide its economic dominance over Armenia, which in turn would be helpful for Baku to reach the solution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and to liberate its occupied lands that have been under Armenian occupation since the early 1990s, by using its strong economy as a tool of hard power. With its increasing economic and political power, Azerbaijan will likely become a dominant actor in the South Caucasus in the near future.The project will make it easier to lead internal social policy successfully for Azerbaijan. It will serve strengthening the economy of Azerbaijan and, naturally, will have a positive effect on the welfare of people of Azerbaijan. The project will open new chances to implement social policy for raising social support for citizens and improve the living conditions of refugees, increasing the welfare of all the country’s people. Despite these benefits being related to internal issues of Azerbaijan, they will still strengthen Azerbaijan and make it ascendant in international arena.In the geopolitics of Eurasia, energy plays an extraordinarily significant role in achieving a foreign policy that is effective for contributing to regional processes. In this context, with the implementation of TANAP, it can be said undoubtedly that Azerbaijan will get a chance to influence political processes around it, and participate in regional politics self-confidently and actively. The economic and political independence of Azerbaijan will also take into account Azerbaijan’s role in global energy security. Azerbaijani positions will be supported at the global level, and it will get more global partners. It is expected that Central Asian countries bordering the Caspian Sea will join this project in the future.In any case, whether Central Asian countries will participate in this project or not, TANAP will increase geopolitical importance of Azerbaijan and strengthen its political and economic independence. It will also serve to strengthen Azerbaijan’s position with international organizations and will bring additional chances to gain more partners in the global community to support it regarding any issue related with, for instance, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan will be able to involve many more countries to support its position in withdrawing the Armenian Army from the occupied lands of Azerbaijan.The author is a lecturer at Nakhchivan State University.
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