By IRINA OVCHINNIKOVAFinancial year 2015 surprised us by oil fever and neglecting opportunities to invest in gold. Price benchmarks for crude oil have updated their minimum for a decade, while a ceiling for daily output were remained extremely high during the year.USD makes the world go roundWe will remember the last year as a period of conflicting strategies of the main banks monetary policy. The ECB abandoned the opportunity to update its interest rates, while the Fed raised them for the first time in nearly a decade. A lot of banks all over the globe prefer low rates in order to push money to make the world go round. The American economy was considered strong enough to withstand high rates and to attract investors. Thus USD will remain the most desired currency. The euro survived through the Greek crisis, disregarding attempt of North-European countries to reject the single currency or to throw Greece away from the European Union. The ECB is going to increase inflation in the euro zone by the quantitative easing program, which will be continued until March 2017. The euro is fragile and precious, as the cultural heritage of Europe. Its destiny is to be spent at an open bouquiniste stand in Montparnasse or in the Gelateria dei Gracchi in Rome. Hidden Dragon, Awakened BearThe Hidden Dragon and the Awakened Bear troubled the Western financial community. China devalued the yuan and managed to support the Shanghai Composite at the very last moment, but the world is scared by Chinese slowdown. Beijing failed to combine the open market economy with the communist ideology. Why we are not surprised? Mainly because of Chins the S&P 500 has been handling all splendors in May and all miseries in August; this Wall Street index finished the year with -0.71%. Only Nasdaq Composite left alive in the green zone after December 31 with +5.73%. Nevertheless, Russian bear surprised people by intervention in the Syrian conflict and friendship with Iran. President Putin forced the Western world to accept his cooperation in the Middle East, because powerful politicians prefer to decrease unpredictability and avoid conflicts with the armed might. Mature leaders developed rational behavior (nothing personal!) in need to coexist with a dictator lost in the past. The dictator is still confident in his personal paradise at $100+ per barrel. Even oil is not foreverCrude oil have been listening Saudis in 2015, while the time of expensive resources run away. OPEC promised $100 per barrel in 2040. Anyhow, 25 years changes the world: a quarter of a century ago we have been working hard to communicate without Facebook and LinkedIn and enjoying Twin Peaks on a display with a vacuum tube. These days crude oil becomes a regular commodity loosing its exclusive status on the global markets. Who will pay $100 per barrel in 2040? Those with money will use something new and clean as an energy source. Those without funds will run out of money. The most intriguing part on the market stage will be performed by Tehran. Iranians will try to match the appetite of those with small fund greedy for crude oil. Probably, Russians will be looking at the same direction.The globe is changing so fast! In spite of this you always find permanent things. Human nature is a very persistent phenomenon: we prefer to close eyes and to hold in hands something familiar avoiding demands to develop a new vision. Still a few good men always keep their eyes opened.
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