In a report published on January 1, JP Morgan listed as its third prediction for the top ten surprises of 2024 that Joe Biden will drop out of the 2024 presidential elections due to health reasons.
The full prediction states that “President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons. Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee.”
This prediction cites Biden’s low approval rating, as well as his approximately 10% job creation since his inauguration, although his inauguration coincided with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and the reopening of the US economy.
Biden has the lowest approval rating of the last 10 presidents in the same time period, at 38%.
The first prediction for 2024 is that the US dollar will remain stable and the second prediction is that the DoJ/FTC will win a big antitrust case.
These predictions were written by Michael Cembalist, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for JP Morgan Asset & Wealth Management, in honor of market strategist Byron Wien, who passed away last year at the age of 90.
For over 30 years whether at Morgan Stanley or Blackstone, Byron published a top ten list of surprises for the following year. This list is published in JP Morgan’s Eye On The Market 2024 Outlook entitled “Pillowtalk.”
More predictions for 2024
For the fourth prediction, Cembalist predicts that the driverless car backlash is coming. “In the few places where full Level 5 autonomous cars are being tested in real-world conditions (San Francisco, Austin), they have blocked ambulances on their way to the hospital, hampered other emergency responders, caused accidents, increased congestion, and run over pedestrians, one instance of which reportedly resulted in the resignation of Cruise’s CEO,” he writes.
Additionally, he predicts that broadly syndicated loan (BSL) losses will rise above private credit losses for the first time; Argentine dollarization will fail if implemented; and the Russian invasion of Ukraine will drag on with no ceasefire in 2024.
For his final three predictions, Cembalist says that despite storm clouds over US regional banks, their stocks will do well in 2024 with stable or rising price to book values; Due to the retirement of dispatchable power generation (nuclear, coal, gas) and underinvestment in pipelines, gas storage and winterization, major US cities will face electricity outages and/or natural gas outages (which are much worse); and researchers will complete work on an inhaled Covid vaccine that will sharply reduce transmission.