Asian tigers save, Israelis spend

Market analyst zeroes in on differences between successful economies.

By GLOBES/OMER RABIN
Money 311 (photo credit: Bloomberg)
Money 311
(photo credit: Bloomberg)
In response to the sensational GDP figures published on Wednesday, showing that the Israeli economy grew at an annual rate of 7.8% in the fourth quarter of 2010, Citigroup Global Markets analysts David Lubin has produced an updated assessment of likely Bank of Israel monetary policy.
Because growth is being fueled by domestic consumption, Lubin estimated that the central bank will need to raise interest rates and allow the shekel to strengthen in order to keep inflation under control.
“It’s been clear for some time that Israel has some of the characteristics of an ‘Asian tiger’ and the fourth quarter GDP data seem to support that idea. Israel boasts a number of features of better-known Asian success stories further to the east. It is highly open (exports are over 40 percent GDP); it enjoys a current account surplus and very low levels of foreign debt (in fact, it is a net foreign creditor); its success is based on an impressive technology sector; and it grows. Q4 GDP rose by a seasonally adjusted 7.8% annualized over the quarter, way above the market’s 4.2% forecast,” Lubin wrote.
However, in one very important respect, Israel differs from the Asian tigers.
“But while the rate of Israel’s growth seems ‘Asian tigerlike,’ the composition of that growth isn’t: Israelis like to spend,” Lubin continued.
“All this is consistent with the one area where Israel’s economic fundamentals depart from their East Asian counterparts: savings. Asian tigers have a much stronger savings culture than Israel does.
Israel’s saving/GDP ratio is closer to 20% than the 30%+ that many Asian economies enjoy.
“The strength of domestic spending within the GDP data will give the Bank of Israel pause for thought: monetary policy needs tightening through rate hikes and stronger shekel. While it is possible that these GDP data could be revised down, the idea of a strong Israeli consumer makes intuitive sense: real interest rates are exceptionally low, a recession was avoided in 2009, confidence is high and the shekel is relatively strong in real terms. And strong domestic spending growth may help explain a 3.6% year-on-year inflation rate in January which, like the GDP data, came out higher than almost everyone’s expectations,” said Lubin.
“The basic question confronting the Bank of Israel is this: are the bank’s interventions in the FX market helping to erode the credibility of its commitment to the inflation target? Since this question is in the air, and since growth seems very strong, we think the Bank may lean towards allowing more shekel appreciation over the next few months,” Lubin concluded.
“A combination of decisive rate hikes and a stronger shekel could both be needed to keep inflationary expectations under control, in our view.”