Worsening domestic discord – not nuclear ambitions – is pushing Iran closer to brinkmanship with Israel, while Arab leaders sit on the sidelines hoping that any containment of Iran does not result in war, analysts say.Some analysts observe that Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear energy – and according to critics, nuclear weapons – barely registers as a threat to Arab countries. Instead, Iran’s internal strife could prove its undoing.Ehsan Ahrari, a Middle East analyst and chief executive officer of Strategic Paradigms- a defense and foreign affairs consultancy agency based in Alexandra, Virginia- told The Media Line that Iran’s primary concern is to shore up the crumbling faith of its people.
console.log("catid body is "+catID);if(catID==120){document.getElementsByClassName("divConnatix")[0].style.display ="none";var script = document.createElement('script'); script.src = 'https://player.anyclip.com/anyclip-widget/lre-widget/prod/v1/src/lre.js'; script.setAttribute('pubname','jpostcom'); script.setAttribute('widgetname','0011r00001lcD1i_12258'); document.getElementsByClassName('divAnyClip')[0].appendChild(script);}else if(catID!=69 && catID!=2){ document.getElementsByClassName("divConnatix")[0].style.display ="none"; var script = document.createElement('script'); script.src = 'https://static.vidazoo.com/basev/vwpt.js'; script.setAttribute('data-widget-id','60fd6becf6393400049e6535'); document.getElementsByClassName('divVidazoo')[0].appendChild(script); }“There is a huge rift inside Iran and the government is looking more vulnerable than ever,” Ahrari said. “It’s not necessarily the sanctions that are hurting Iran, but the political legitimacy of the regime that is in tatters.”A foreign affairs official for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) told The Media Line that Iran’s nuclear capabilities are vastly overstated and Iran’s “posturing” has more do to with maintaining its regional power.“Iran is more interested in maintaining its influence in Syria and Iraq, and making a nuisance of itself by promoting insurgency in Bahrain and among the Shiites in Saudi Arabia,” said the official who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak.The 2009 Green Revolution, spearheaded by thousands of middle class and educated Iranians, badly shook the regime led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although the Iranian government violently crushed a burgeoning uprising, it did nothing to quell the growing dissatisfaction among young people with the country’s elders.Amnesty International reported last month that Iran executed twice as many people in 2011 as it did in 2010, during which 253 official executions were held. The executions “may be a strategy to spread fear among the population and to deter protests,” the human rights organization said. Since their 2009 election triumph, Ahmadinejad and Khamenei have been engaged in a bitter power struggle, dividing the leadership. By exploiting tensions with Israel and the leadership role taken by US President Barack Obama and the European Union in issuing tough sanctions, Iran hopes to rally its people behind the government and strengthen its political leadership, Ahrari said. Marking the Iranian new year on Tuesday, Khamenei turned to the theme of defiance in an address to the nation. “If the Iranian nation resorts to its determination, awareness and planning it will overcome challenges that the enemy has provided,” said Khamenei, who has the final say on all matter of state. If Iran’s domestic economy flourishes, the country’s enemies would lose hope and their “plotting” would come to an end.Ahrari said that despite Obama’s talk of combining sanctions with diplomacy, the US president is not laying out a complete game plan.Click here for full Jpost coverage of the Iranian threat