It has been three months since the war between Israel and Hamas began.
The attacks that Hamas carried out on October 7 killed 1,200 people in Israel. In response, Israel launched a military offensive on the Gaza Strip. According to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, more than 22,000 people have died since Israel launched its offensive.
Meanwhile, 175 Israeli soldiers have been killed during the ground operation, which began three weeks after the Israeli Air Force’s massive air campaign. Additionally, 129 Israelis, the majority of whom are civilians, remain in captivity in Gaza.
According to the United Nations, almost 2 million Palestinians have been displaced in Gaza, many of whom are facing starvation. In southern Israel, the focal point of Hamas’ surprise offensive, tens of thousands of residents have been uprooted from their homes.
Where is the fighting headed?
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has indicated that it is gradually entering a new phase in the fighting. At the onset of the war, approximately 300,000 reserve soldiers were called up for duty. Many of them were released during the last week, able to return to their families and jobs.
“The objectives of the war require prolonged fighting, and we are preparing accordingly,” said Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, spokesperson for the IDF, earlier this week. “Some of the reservists will return to their families and employment this week. This will significantly ease the burden on the economy and allow them to gather strength for the upcoming activities in the next year, as the fighting will continue, and they will still be required.”
Israeli forces are now focusing their efforts on the southern Gaza Strip. The area is believed to be the hub of Hamas’ military infrastructure, most of it located in an elaborate underground tunnel network. It is also believed to be where most of the Israeli hostages are being held.
But as more reservists cross the border back into Israel on their way home, there appears to be a dialing down of the war effort.
“It looks like the war has entered the phase of low-intensity conflict,” said Dr. Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. Voicing his concern, Milstein told The Media Line that Israel is entering a “vague” stage in which the fate of Hamas is unclear with the organization perhaps still intact. “In the south, the IDF continues to clear the area of terrorists and it seems the intense fighting has stopped there.”
At the beginning of the war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set out Israel’s goals, saying the aim was to topple Hamas, rid it of its military capabilities, and secure the release of all the hostages.
On Thursday, the IDF said it had ‘significantly’ damaged Hamas’ abilities in the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis. However, the terrorist organization is still functioning and continues to fire rockets towards Israel, albeit in rapidly declining numbers.
“If things remain like this, there is a chance Hamas will declare victory and continue to fight against Israel from both the north and the south,” Milstein added. “A gap is developing between the goals of the war as stated and what is actually happening on the ground.”
“Without full control in Khan Yunis, including boots on the ground, Israel will not be successful in destroying Hamas,” he added.
On Tuesday, a senior Hamas commander was killed in an airstrike in Lebanon. While Israel did not take responsibility for the attack, it is believed to be behind it. The death of Saleh al-Arouri, the terror group’s most senior commander to have been killed since the outbreak of the war, could result in the distancing of a hostage release deal as Hamas has now vowed to avenge his killing.
Is another war on the horizon?
The war between Israel and Hamas immediately triggered fears of a larger, regional conflict. Just a day after Hamas’ attack, the Lebanese-based Hezbollah militant group began to fire rockets at Israel as part of its effort to show solidarity with the Palestinians. Since then, there have been daily fire exchanges between the IDF and Hezbollah.
In recent days, senior Israeli officials have stepped up their threats against Hezbollah.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is slated to visit the region next week. One of his goals is to try to prevent a further escalation between Hezbollah and Israel.
Tens of thousands of residents of Israel’s north were also evacuated in the beginning of the war.
“This is the last chance for any political settlement on the matter,” said Milstein. “The population cannot be brought back if the situation remains as it is. Right now, it looks like there is more chance for a military solution than a political one.”
Hezbollah is considered to be a much more formidable enemy than Hamas, with an arsenal of tens of thousands of precise missiles that can reach many areas in Israel, including strategically important infrastructure. The last war both sides fought in 2006 ended in scars to both sides and a mutual deterrence that began gradually eroding in recent years.
The US is looking to implement UN Resolution 1701, which ended the war but was never fulfilled. It calls on Hezbollah forces to be distanced from the border with Israel.
Rehabilitation of Israel’s south
As part of Hamas’ offensive, its terrorists burned entire neighborhoods in the south of Israel. Hundreds of Hamas operatives stormed the border as a massive rocket barrage served as a diversion. The damage to Israel’s south is extensive, with years required to rebuild.
Eyal Grisaru is an 18-year-old university student from Kibbutz Zikim. Studying to be a software engineer, he is eager to get back home to his kibbutz. The communal village, located just a few kilometers from Gaza, was raided by Hamas terrorists amphibiously.
Eyal is also a medic. On October 7, he helped his father, a doctor, treat many of those wounded because of Hamas’ attack.
“Of course, there is a trauma,” Grisaru told The Media Line. “But the only thing that will help overcome this is to be in my home, in my bed with my belongings. In a strange bed, in strange surroundings, I do not have my peace of mind. I have this at home, despite the risk.”
As the Israeli military continues to operate, Grisaru is optimistic that many of the failures that led up to the attack have been rectified by the army.
“My greatest fear is that the terrorists will be able to once again overcome the naval barrier like they did,” he said. “I saw so many failures on October 7; I hope now that with all the resources, these will be corrected.”
For Livnat Shlezinger, a mother of three from the southern city of Sderot, the memories of October 7 and the years before are keeping her away for now.
Israel’s south has been subject to Hamas rocket fire for over 20 years. Shlezinger had already left her hometown of Sderot but decided to return to live there just two months before the attack.
“The response should have been very harsh from the first rocket,” she said. “Instead of spending millions on bomb shelters, fortifying schools, and psychological therapy, they should have spent it on a harsh response that would have deterred them [Hamas],” she told The Media Line.
“I don’t want to go back,” she added. She is now with her family at the kibbutz Kvutzat Yavne and said she will be eternally grateful for their hospitality during these difficult times, allowing her children “a healthier routine.”
Public opinion in Israel
Hamas’ attack shocked Israelis to the core. They had been told by their government and by the military that Hamas was deterred. Scenes of terrorists easily tearing down the highly fortified border with Gaza, and storming Israeli cities and villages were chilling.
According to Professor Udi Lebel from the School of Communication and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, the public discourse is still stuck on October 6, the day before the offensive.Hamas’ attack came at the heels of a highly explosive public debate on the future of Israel’s democracy, as the government pushed forward with a controversial judicial reform.
“In previous wars, the discourse was all about the military and its operations,” Lebel told The Media Line. “What we are seeing now is that each side is framing the war according to its political beliefs, using the war as its case study.”A recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute showed many Israelis see only moderate to little success in reaching the goals of the war. While Israelis have rallied behind the government and the army, they also show little optimism. Only 40% were optimistic about Israel’s security in the future.
“No one is rising above their narrow discourse and rallying together. Even the subject of the hostages is painted by each side differently,” said Lebel. “There are some serious geostrategic issues at hand that require a serious debate, and this is not happening.”
Israel is now treading sketchy waters. Should it enter a prolonged phase of low-intensity fighting, the future will be murky.
“You can’t tell the people that the goals are still being pursued while letting so many reservists go home,” said Milstein. “Israel appears to be heading towards some sort of hybrid solution instead of trying to overcome Hamas, as heavy a price as it takes.”