The victory over Iran opens a new chapter in the history of the region and creates many opportunities, including a move closer to an agreement with Hamas on the release of the hostages, according to Lt.-Col. Amit Yagur.
Instead of solving Gaza and then moving on to the region, we must work in parallel - promoting the expansion of the Abraham Accords as the foundation for the new regional order in the Middle East, a new trade route, and declaring Arab countries as future administrators of Gaza, he said.
The discussed framework in Gaza
The proposal includes the immediate release of half the hostages, followed by a short negotiation on ending the war and releasing the remaining hostages. Hamas itself opposes the plan, claiming it effectively amounts to surrender and that Israel seeks to occupy the Gaza Strip and impose Israeli rule.
According to Hamas, the pressure being placed on Gaza's population will not bring about an agreement; instead, what is required is an agreement to end the fighting and the withdrawal of IDF forces from Gaza.
There is therefore a dilemma between a framework that would ensure an end to the fighting and a withdrawal, ultimately leading to the release of all hostages, versus a full military occupation of Gaza and a long-term military presence, which could endanger the lives of the remaining hostages.
Current framework in Iran
Currently Iran and Israel have reached a fragile ceasefire that is not formalized in writing. The supreme leader, for his part, remains stubborn and committed to a highly confrontational stance, asserting Iran’s right to enrich uranium and declaring that it will soon resume doing so while severing ties with the global body meant to oversee the process — the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
While public perception in Israel is that “we’re done” with Iran, in reality, there is a significant likelihood that Israel will need to resume kinetic military operations on Iranian soil for the purposes of enforcement and deterrence.
An opportunity has emerged to expand regional cooperation in anticipation of forming a new economic-political architecture based on the "New Silk Road" axis from Indonesia to India, through the Gulf countries, to Jordan, and from there to Israel as the gateway to Europe (the IMEC axis).
The means expanding the Abraham Accords as a political infrastructure to enable this vision. The current discussion focuses on the following potential countries: Indonesia, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and perhaps Lebanon (at a later, lower priority stage). In rational thinking - the solution to the Gaza problem and the end of the fighting there are the ones that will allow a breakthrough in the regional arena and a final blow for the time being to the Iranian plan to export the Islamic revolution.
According to Yagur, resolving the Gaza issue and ending the fighting there are what will enable a breakthrough on the regional stage and deliver, for now, a decisive blow to Iran’s project of exporting the Islamic Revolution.
However, Israel faces adversaries (the Iranian supreme leader and the remnants of Hamas in Gaza) who are not necessarily rational. Their worldview is rooted in a fervent religious faith that is committed to "standing firm" and refusing to surrender, even when all "rational" conditions seem to be against them. Therefore, perhaps the Israeli approach to translating military achievements into political gains should be a middle-ground approach - one that addresses multiple fronts and arenas in parallel, rather than sequentially (i.e., first resolving the Gaza front and only then moving on to others).
The solution to Gaza might actually lie in advancing the new regional order in the Middle East. Israel, together with the United States, should demand that Arab states wishing to be part of any new Middle East framework stop using a dual narrative — one in which, in public discourse, the Palestinian issue is presented as a precondition for any agreement, while behind closed doors, the conversation is entirely different, almost the opposite. This dual narrative has significantly contributed to the current state of affairs for many years — and it’s time to move past it.
Practically on the ground, this means that Arab countries that expressed their agreement in mid-2024 to civilian administration of the Gaza Strip "the day after" - through a US-led civil committee involving Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and possibly the UAE and Oman - should declare this anew and publicly. It is of paramount importance now to restart the voluntary migration plan from Gaza and begin its implementation with the assistance of those countries. Implementing this plan will leave the irrational ruler without followers – and without hope.
Yagur added that the Israeli prime minister/president will embark on a diplomatic tour of the Middle East that will start in India, pass through the Persian Gulf, and from there visit one of the American aircraft carriers in the region. All of these are messages intended to demonstrate to the irrational players in the region (Iran and Hamas) that continued defiance is futile – it will lead nowhere in the end. Therefore it is better to go forward with personal survival - in exchange for the hostages, of course.
Yagur added that "the image etched in my mind as the closing scene is the one taken in 1982 at the Beirut port — the expulsion of PLO forces from Lebanon by sea, where the terrorist organization chose the personal survival of its leaders over 'steadfast resistance.'"
"In a deal that declares the end of the war (since we have already exhausted the campaign in Gaza if there is no intention to impose military rule) and with Israel’s agreement to a safe exit from the Gaza Strip for the remaining senior Hamas members still active, conditional on the release of all the hostages.
Yagur concluded: "I believe this is possible, especially now, if we can skillfully combine the tools at our disposal to influence the psychology of the other side."