Reports suggesting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei might have been killed, if confirmed, would carry dramatic, far-reaching consequences, says Oded Ailam, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA) and a former senior Mossad official.
“If Khamenei was killed, it would be a game changer,” Ailam said.
“I see the current regime struggling to survive a move like that. Any designated successor or replacement would face the same reality.Khamenei has been the central pillar around which the regime has been built for decades.” He urged caution in light of conflicting reports. “We’ve seen reports in the past that turned out to be inaccurate. Verification is needed, but if it did happen, it marks the start of a collapse process.”
Iranian regime struggling to survive
Ailam also addressed concerns about a wider regional escalation and the possibility of Hezbollah joining the fight. He assessed that a full entry by Hezbollah was unlikely at this stage. “They don’t currently have the capabilities, and Lebanon won’t allow it easily. The organization’s leadership has been badly hurt in recent years,” he said.
According to Ailam, Iran was signaling an intention to broaden its response, including an emphasis on US bases and threats surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, but he said the situation remained in its early stages. “We are still at the beginning of the event, and developments in the coming days will determine whether this is a limited escalation or a deeper regional shift.”