A new poll conducted among active Likud members provides a rare glimpse into the mood at the heart of the base: very high loyalty to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, alongside a clear reservation about personal, family, and political moves he may seek to advance.
In the Likud list for the 26th Knesset, according to the poll of members, Tali Gottlieb leads with 71.5% of approval among Likud voters. Following her are Amir Ohana with 69.9%, Moshe Saada with 61.6%, Eli Cohen with 56.6%, and Boaz Bismuth with 54.8%. The top ten also include Amichai Chikli, Israel Katz, Miri Regev, Yariv Levin, and Shlomo Karhi.
The first data Likud always checks is who is strong in the field. The survey shows that the members continue to reward those seen as ideological fighters, loyal to the right-wing line and Netanyahu, but at the same time, new preferences are emerging at the top.
Ohana is the biggest winner: second place on the list and the leading candidate to replace Netanyahu if he does not run, with 26.1%, ahead of Israel Katz, who got 18.1%.
Netanyahu himself still enjoys deep control within the party. 75.1% of the members prefer him for Likud leadership, 74.6% support advancing a pardon for him, and 76% believe his position has strengthened due to the security campaign. However, compared to January, when his support was above 80%, a slight erosion is evident - especially among his most loyal supporters.
The most significant crack is Netanyahu’s demand for ten reserved slots on the list. Only 48.9% support it. On the other hand, 51.1% do not fully accept the demand: 31.4% are willing to accept only 2-3 reserved spots, and 10.5% oppose any reserved slots altogether. In Likud, where discipline toward the leader is part of the political DNA, this is an exceptional figure.
The possibility of reserving a spot for Yair Netanyahu also faces broad rejection: 64.2% of the members oppose it, and only 20.6% support it. When asked which public figures they would like to see joining the Likud list, Yair Netanyahu received only 6.9%. The message from the field is clear: Netanyahu the father maintains his power; an attempt to promote his son is viewed entirely differently.
The relationship with the Prime Minister’s inner circle is also complex on other issues. Only 37.2% believe his family and close circle strengthen his position, while 29.6% think they weaken it, and 33.2% are unsure. Regarding Ziv Agmon’s statements, 36.7% are disappointed, and only 33.2% are satisfied.
The issue of ultra-Orthodox enlistment also shows clear discomfort. Only 32.3% support advancing the draft exemption law before the elections, 40.9% oppose it, and 26.9% are uncertain. Nearly two-thirds, therefore, do not explicitly support the measure - a figure that illustrates the gap between the demands of the ultra-Orthodox partners and the mood within Likud itself.
Near-unanimous support for war among Likud members
In the security arena, support for the war is almost unanimous: 94.7% believe it was necessary. Satisfaction with the results, however, is much lower: only 55.9% expressed great or very great satisfaction.
Additionally, 44% do not believe or are unsure about statements regarding Iran and Hezbollah’s weakness. Even among the members, it turns out, support for the campaign’s initiation does not erase questions about the achievements at its conclusion.
In the broader political landscape, Likud remains very stable. 85.2% of members say there is a high to certain probability they will vote for Likud, and 77.3% completely rule out voting for a new party that might be formed by Gilad Erdan, Moshe Kahlon, and Yuli Edelstein.
In the end, Netanyahu still controls Likud, but the members are no longer signing him a blank check. The list they envision - Gottlieb at the top, Ohana strengthening, and Barkat weakening - tells the story of a loyal, right-wing, combative base that is also willing to set limits: no to ten reserved spots, no to Yair Netanyahu, and not necessarily to a deal with the ultra-Orthodox at any cost.
The survey was conducted in May 2026 among active Likud members, a group of about 120,000 people, who do not represent the general Likud voter base. The research was carried out by Dr. Nimrod Nir from the Agam Institute and Asa Shapira, among active members as listed in the updated register as of December 2025. The final sample included 1,097 respondents after duplicates were removed, bots were filtered, and all participants were verified to be in the updated voter registry. According to the pollsters, the respondents' socio-demographic characteristics were similar to those of the general Likud membership. The sampling error is 3.899% with a 95% confidence level.