How and why elections could still be stopped - analysis

The question currently facing Israel is how to halt a train accelerating toward an unprecedented fourth election in barely more than a year and a half.

By GIL HOFFMAN
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Alternate Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Benny Gantz hold a press conference in Tel Aviv on July 27, 2020. (photo credit: TAL SHAHAR/POOL)
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Alternate Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Benny Gantz hold a press conference in Tel Aviv on July 27, 2020.
(photo credit: TAL SHAHAR/POOL)
Competitive mathematics examinations in the United States tend to ask questions about what it takes to stop an accelerating train.
The question currently facing Israel is how to halt a train accelerating toward an unprecedented fourth election in barely more than a year and a half.
The technical reason for the election is that if no state budget passes within 100 days of the government’s formation, the Knesset disperses automatically. An Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) study found that no other Western nation has such a law.
“The law in place that states that if a budget fails to pass – whether right after a government is formed or by March every year – the Knesset is forced to automatically disperse, was supposed to bring stability to and to improve the functioning of the political system,” IDI president Yohanan Plesner said. “In practice, this very mechanism that was supposed to instill stability instead injects volatility into the political system.”
Plesner said the time has come to implement reforms that would make it much more difficult for the Knesset to disperse itself, compel politicians to form a stable government for a full four years and negate the need for constant unnecessary elections.
Such reforms, however positive, would not help in the current situation, because no one seriously believes the debate over one two-year budget or two one-year budgets would be the real reason for the election. It is only the current excuse, because the coalition agreement states that Blue and White leader Benny Gantz would become caretaker prime minister during an election, unless the race is caused because the budget did not pass.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu  does not want to implement the rotation with Gantz in the Prime Minister’s Office that is set for November 2021. If an early election must be held to prevent that, it makes sense for him to initiate a November 2020 race, before his criminal trial intensifies in January and the economic situation is expected to deteriorate.
So can one conductor make the train go full speed ahead toward a cliff if everyone else on board wants it to stop?
The evidence of the past three elections would suggest that the answer to the question is yes. At least two of them also apparently took place due to developments in the criminal cases against Netanyahu.
But this possible election could be different. This time, there are 33 other ministers, eight deputy ministers and a dozen Knesset committee chairmen who do not want to lose their newfound power. Even the leaders of the opposition, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, who are doing well in the polls, are not calling for an election at the height of the dual health and economic crises.
The haredi (ultra-Orthodox) community would be hit especially hard by another election, and its representatives have threatened revenge against Netanyahu if he lets it happen. Likud MKs, including Gideon Sa’ar, have talked openly about doing everything possible to block an election.
There are also serious protests now, which were absent during the first three elections. The protests call on Netanyahu to quit, and initiating an election would make it look like they won and give his competition momentum.
Letting an election happen during an economic crisis is a big risk for any incumbent, especially one under indictment. The election likely would take place shortly after Americans go to the polls, which could also harm Netanyahu’s chances if US polls are correct and his ally Donald Trump is defeated.
As big a blow as that could be to Netanyahu, the president that Netanyahu should fear is actually the president of Israel, Reuven Rivlin, who detests Netanyahu and reportedly would rather resign than entrust an indicted prime minister in the midst of his trial with forming another government.
There is also the money issue. Netanyahu’s Likud is facing massive debts and a law passed in the previous Knesset requires loans from the Knesset to be repaid this term. The debts would be collected automatically when the Knesset disperses, which could cost the Likud tens of millions of shekels, Joint List MK Mtanes Shehadeh revealed on his Twitter feed on Tuesday.
Are all those reasons enough to stop the train? No one can really say at this point, except perhaps for Netanyahu, who does not tend to make decisions two entire weeks before a deadline.
Even if the train is halted for now, it could face the same cliff in another few months. And then the same questions will be asked once again.