Gaza war negatively affected American presence in region
An-Nahar, Lebanon, January 12
Since the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation on Oct. 7, the US’s presence and deployment in the region have been facing a serious crisis. Amid the fierce and destructive Israeli war on Gaza, several fronts have ignited against American forces, which previously held a comfortable position in Syria, Iraq, and the regional seas, spanning from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Oman. Gradually, this has changed under the Iranians’ slogan of supporting Gaza without engaging in a full-scale war with the US and Israel.
The reality is that American military bases in Iraq and eastern Syria have been targeted more than 120 times by missile strikes or explosive drones launched by Iraqi factions affiliated with the Popular Mobilization Forces, effectively controlled by Iran through the Iranian Quds Force. These attacks, aimed at vital American influence in the Middle East, have now reached a point where they can no longer be ignored. Iran’s intentions have become clear, calling for an increase in attacks on American forces through guerrilla warfare, thereby raising the cost of remaining in the region and potentially reopening the issue of American deployment in the Middle East within the corridors of the US Congress during a presidential election year.
Former president Donald Trump also had a stance on the American presence in Iraq, mentioning calls from the Iraqi government to hasten the American exit following the targeting of Iraqi militias that had launched attacks on American bases. Trump stated that “there’s no point in staying there if they don’t want us.”
Although American forces have not suffered any casualties thus far, the pressure on them has increased, leading to movement restrictions out of fear of ambushes in both Iraq and Syria. This development has posed a significant challenge to American policy in Iraq as Iran seemingly declares war on the American presence in the Middle East in the name of responding to the Gaza conflict. However, the matter is more complex than just targeting American bases. It is intricately linked to the balance of power between Iranian and American influence in Iraq, where both have coexisted for many years. Iraq’s stability cannot be ensured by Iran alone, which represents a closed sectarian environment within a country that is ethnically and religiously divided. Furthermore, economic and financial factors make Iraq’s detachment from the US an impossibility in the foreseeable future. – Ali Hamada
Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea
Al Qabas, Kuwait, January 11
The Houthi attacks on marine vessels in the Red Sea, specifically in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, have been ongoing since 2017 and have recently escalated. These attacks are not solely aimed at influencing the global oil market. Following the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on Oct. 7, the Houthi operations took on a more targeted approach, focusing on tankers from countries that allegedly support Israel or are associated with Israeli figures. This expansion in scope has made their attacks a significant threat to global trade and the oil price market. While many view these attacks as revenge against Israel and a show of support for Gaza, there are actually two primary motives at play. First, it is a message to Israel itself, particularly its right-wing government, that Iran and its agents are ready to deter potential Israeli attacks and destabilize the region. Second, it serves to discourage the US, one of Israel’s strongest allies, from increasing its focus in the region and thwarting Iran’s ambitions in the Gulf. These attacks raise important questions about the impact on the American military presence in the region and the role of other powers. In response, Washington has formed a naval coalition involving over 20 countries, mainly from Europe, to counter these attacks. While maritime alliances in the Red Sea have existed in the past to combat piracy, terrorism, and Iranian threats, the intensity and participation of forces in this new alliance are unprecedented. This prompts speculation about whether this coalition could be a part of President Biden’s larger strategy to counter China and its allies. The lack of response from China, despite the significant impact of these attacks on Chinese trade, is noteworthy. It appears that China believes the broad Western presence in the Indian Ocean relieves the burden of protection on its trade routes while diverting Washington’s attention away from the Pacific. However, the Western coalition aims to confront China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean and Africa. Therefore, the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are reshaping alliances and creating tense situations. These attacks have far-reaching consequences that will continue to unfold in the foreseeable future. – Noura Saleh Al-Majim
Israel at the ICJ
Al-Ahram, Egypt, January 11
Today marks a crucial turning point in the course of humanity. The International Court of Justice is currently deliberating on a lawsuit presented by South Africa, a country that for many decades endured the oppressive weight of racism. Under the leadership of Nelson Mandela, South Africa triumphed over white supremacy and is now ruled by the African majority, promoting equality between racial groups. South Africa stands at the forefront of a new global battle against the repugnant racism displayed by the Western world and Israel, which has regrettably taken on religious dimensions. The suffering of the people of Gaza and the relentless killing inflicted upon them by Israel has reached an unfathomable scale. This systematic annihilation spares neither children, the sick, nor the elderly, leaving innocent lives exposed to brutality previously unseen by humanity. The Israeli occupation forces have deprived the population of every basic necessity, from water and energy to food and medicine. These cruel measures have driven them to face the harshest conditions imaginable, stripped of their homes and shelters. The once thriving city of Gaza lies in ruins, devastated by a brutal occupation endorsed by America and the Western world, all disguised under false pretexts. While the occupiers claim to be combating the resistance or searching for hostages, their prisons are filled with thousands of Palestinian detainees, including innocent children. South Africa’s portrayal of the current state of Gaza and its inhabitants is beyond dispute. Through the testimony and evidence provided by journalists and media professionals, the truth cannot be obscured. Israel, in its insidious attempts to conceal its heinous acts, has even resorted to silencing over 100 journalists, perpetrating its crimes away from the watchful eyes of the world. Yet, in this era of images, the truth can no longer be concealed. I firmly believe that the International Court of Justice stands at a pivotal moment in history. Its decision will either restore faith in the world and its institutions or succumb to the influence of repulsive racism led by Israel and its Western allies. At this critical juncture, all nations must take precautions, for the consequences of such a shift would be far-reaching. The balance of power within the international community would crumble, leading to a proliferation of wars and conflicts that would spiral out of control. The International Court now faces a difficult and daunting mission: to confront the brutality and warmongering perpetrated by [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and his extremist government against innocent Palestinians who are trapped under the oppressive weight of occupation. – Osama Saraya
Israel Finds Itself Hemorrhaging on All Fronts
Asharq Al-Awsat, London, January 10
If Israel were to assess its losses in the current ongoing conflict, it would reach a single conclusion: Gaza, with its labyrinth of tunnels, has become a formidable enemy, more powerful than any military in the world. Israel, too, has created its own entangled maze from which escape is arduous. Traditionally, we compare losses in war, examining the casualties, damage, and destruction inflicted on both sides. While these measurements are significant, they may pale in comparison to other repercussions. In terms of human lives, equipment, and injuries, the toll has been considerable. While equipment is easily replaceable, the precious lives lost cannot be restored. Additionally, what fate awaits those left permanently disabled? Perhaps the most perilous consequence of this conflict is the demoralization of the Israeli public. Accustomed to a sense of superiority and strength, the citizens of Israel have long regarded their country as a safe haven, a sanctuary for Jews worldwide. This sanctuary is no more. It has transformed from a destination for immigration to a place people now flee. The escalating instability has forced numerous residents to abandon their homes in search of safer ground, resulting in an influx of internal refugees. This not only disrupts societal stability but also undermines the psychological well-being of those displaced and the communities grappling with their arrival. The conflict has also devastated the economy, crippling its stability and development. Local workers are repeatedly called upon for military reserves, disrupting their employment and productivity. Palestinian workers, known for their efficiency and affordability, are no longer a reliable option. Even foreign workers, who previously filled the void, may think twice before coming given the current state of affairs. If they do come, their burdens and disadvantages far outweigh any advantages. This presents Israel with an unyielding dilemma. Temporarily resolving the conflict does not offer a permanent solution as long as Israel relies solely on military might, and Palestinians persist in their resistance. Israel’s narrative, once widely accepted, has been undermined and questioned. The nation touted itself as an oasis of democracy in a region overshadowed by dictatorships. It highlighted its modernity and repeatedly justified its wars as acts of self-defense against terrorism and enemies of progress and civilization. Despite occasional international support for this narrative during lulls in conflict, this war has shattered that consensus. The international community witnessed on their screens the savagery unleashed on Gaza and the West Bank, surpassing any previous levels of destruction and civilian casualties, most notably children. This has not only altered the simplistic image of Israel among its allies but has shaken the core of human conscience and elicited profound empathy for the victims and a growing acknowledgment of the Palestinians’ right to self-defense. Since this conflict shows no sign of imminent resolution even after three months, it is likely to drag on indefinitely. Israel finds itself hemorrhaging on all fronts, while sympathy for the victims and understanding of the Palestinians’ cause continue to swell. Furthermore, the idea of integration in the Middle East, an objective Israel has strived to realize, is rapidly deteriorating. While new relationships with many nations have been established, caution now surrounds these alliances. Egypt and Jordan, for example, view the displacement of Palestinians as a serious concern that warrants vigilance and preparation. The most formidable tunnel of all lies in the ICJ. Israel stands accused of genocide and ethnic cleansing, allegations supported by compelling evidence and facts. In such matters, lawyers, regardless of their skill, and even the US, cannot wield their influence. In an institution like this, there are no vetoes from friends. Israel created these tunnels for itself, and it is alarming that its decision-makers are aware yet choose to ignore them. Consequently, many in Israel are left wondering: How much longer can this go on? – Nabil Amr
Translated by Asaf Zilberfarb.