With the Iran ceasefire in place, Israel’s attention will need to return to the 630-day war with Hamas. Seven soldiers were killed on June 24, illustrating how the grueling campaign continues to take lives. The war has no end in sight.
Israel launched a new phase of the Israel-Hamas War called Gideon’s Chariots in mid-May, designed for the IDF to take over and hold areas of Gaza. In late May, the new Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) also began operations and has distributed four million meals since then.
The twin operations by the IDF and the GHF are designed to create a new reality in Gaza. However, neither is a long-term strategy or solution. Distributing meals in boxes to thousands of people a day likely can’t go on forever. It’s a way to provide aid to Gazans for several months and to prevent Hamas from controlling the aid distribution.
There were also reports that Israel has been working with militias in Gaza. The GHF is working with local Gazans and giving them a temporary space that is free from Hamas. However, the question is whether this Hamas-free zone can expand.
Will the campaign in Gaza take a new form due to Iran's weakening by 12-day war?
The IDF has moved slowly to consolidate gains in areas of Gaza. This includes southern Gaza’s Rafah and Morag corridor areas and parts of the Netzarim corridor. It also includes areas in northern Gaza, such as Jabalya and those north of Gaza City. The question now is whether the campaign in Gaza will take a new form since Iran has been weakened by the IDF’s 12-day war there.
With Iran weakened, it’s possible that a new initiative in Gaza could take shape. For a year and a half, countries such as Qatar and Egypt have sought to mediate a ceasefire and hostage deal. Much of that deal’s structure remains the same as in the past. US President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff had sought a way to extend a ceasefire that was brokered in January 2025.
However, it broke down in March. Proposals to create a short-term ceasefire have been floated. Hamas wants an end to the war. Israel has said it doesn’t want to end the war. This means that Hamas is in charge of half of Gaza while around 50 hostages remain captive there.
If Iran’s influence weakens, Israel may sense that it has won the regional war and might become more flexible in its approach toward Hamas, leaving the terror organization to control Gaza. It could also lead to Hamas realizing that it has less support abroad and is more isolated without Iran. However, Hamas does have backers in Turkey and is hosted by Qatar. It is not totally isolated.
It’s possible that Doha might encourage Hamas to be more flexible after the capital played a key role in brokering the Iran ceasefire. Doha has increased support from Trump as a result. Trump wants the war in Gaza to end.
The key questions now are whether the Iran conflict opens up options in Gaza or not. Will the opportunity be seized to make changes? In the past, the tactics in Gaza have usually been removed from a broader strategy. For instance, when Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Sinwar were killed, there was no attempt to seize the opportunity to try to divide or weaken Hamas using bold new military offensives.
As a result, Hamas is in charge of half of Gaza and is entrenched in Gaza’s central camps area and Gaza City itself. The central camps include Nuseirat, Deir el-Balah, Maghazi, and El-Bureij.
These areas were historic refugee camps in the 1950s. In the 1980s, many Hamas members who came from these areas joined the terror organization. As such, they are perceived as a Hamas stronghold. The IDF has never operated to eliminate Hamas in these areas. Any strategy going forward will have to account for this.