The US wants to see a Gaza international force put in place in the coming months. This is part of the move to phase two, as Hamas has turned over almost all the hostages held in Gaza.
To get international support for an international force, the US has turned to the UN Security Council. The goal is to get a mandate and then move forward with building the force.
It has been a month since the Sinai ceasefire deal to end the war. The White House has been keeping the pressure on to move forward and make sure things don’t fall apart.
Toward that end, US envoy Jared Kushner is in Israel this week. Reports about the composition of the international stabilization force, however, continue to present hurdles to the force actually being formed.
The latest news is a report that the UAE might not want to send forces to Gaza. It was never clear if the UAE would send forces.
Nevertheless, the UAE is considered one of the countries that is amenable to Israel. It is member of the Abraham Accords. Jerusalem doesn’t want Turkey in Gaza, for instance.
“The United Arab Emirates does not yet see a clear framework for the proposed international stability force in Gaza and, under the current circumstances, will not take part, a senior Emirati official said on Monday,” Reuters reported. “Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, said Abu Dhabi would continue to support political efforts toward peace and remain a leading provider of humanitarian aid.”
The wording of the report is interesting. The UAE is always a cautious country in some ways, and it also is willing to play the long game in the region.
For this reason, the UAE also was willing to take the risk of signing the Abraham Accords. It has not always been pleased with how this turned out; it had hoped Israel’s government would moderate rather than become more extreme in its behavior and rhetoric.
The UAE has been very supportive of civilians in Gaza during the last two years of war. It has evacuated some people for medical assistance and moved aid in via Egypt. It has helped with field hospitals in Gaza and also with airdrops of food. As such, it can be seen as a responsible actor in this sense.
Nevertheless, the issue of who will send forces to Gaza is a complex question. Most countries want to see another country take the lead.
Gaza is high risk, low reward
Some countries don’t have experience deploying peacekeepers. They also see no real return on investment for sending peacekeepers if those troops get in a firefight in Gaza. Gaza is high risk and not much of a reward.
On the other hand, one could argue that the UAE’s alleged involvement in the Sudan civil war has also been high risk with an unclear benefit.
This means Abu Dhabi must weigh the long-term benefit of a stable Gaza that is influenced by the judicious efforts of the UAE with what might go wrong if there is a deployment.
The UAE will want guarantees from the Trump administration, which has close ties in the Gulf. As such, it can probably persuade the UAE to play some kind of role. For instance, the UAE has played a role in other conflicts, such as in Yemen.
Perhaps this could mean helping with private military contractors or incentivizing other countries to deploy peacekeepers. The UAE has many friends around the world who could be beneficial in this respect.