Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa has appeared to outwit many of his enemies over the years. As his forces have swept across eastern Syria, pushed by the Syrian Democratic Forces, one image being published on social media shows Sharaa playing chess. The symbolism is important. Sharaa is seen as a master chess player, outplaying his opponents one-by-one.
Over the last two years, Sharaa has appeared to wield impressive skills. He went from leading Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria’s northwest Idlib province to running most of Syria.
He defeated the Assad regime, ejected Iran and Hezbollah from Syria, and also carved out relations with the US, Europe, Russia, and many other countries. Now, having moved Syria to join the anti-ISIS coalition, he is also pushing back the US-backed SDF.
It should be recalled that at other times when countries like Russia had sent forces to attack the SDF, the US had used military means to deter them. In one clash, US forces even killed numerous members of Russia’s Wagner private military contractor militia.
How did Sharaa accomplish all this? Two decades ago, he was in prison in Iraq. He was apparently held at Camp Bucca, a huge sprawling detention facility, from 2005 until around 2010 or 2011. Sharaa had journeyed to Iraq to join the insurgency against US forces.
Later, in 2011, he returned to Syria to fight the Assad regime. He came back with credentials that identified him with al-Qaeda. In Syria, he re-branded the local branch of al-Qaeda into a group called the Nusra Front. Then, in 2017, he re-branded that group into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
However, Sharaa had already earned himself a designation as a terrorist in the sights of the US. Yet, he was able to carve out an area of Syria for HTS in Idlib. While other Syrian rebel groups weakened or were defeated by the Syrian regime in 2018, HTS survived. Turkey co-opted several rebel groups, but not HTS. Instead, HTS maintained its independence and bided its time. In late 2024, when Israel handed Hezbollah a defeat, Sharaa made his move.
Sharaa marched on Aleppo, and the city fell in a few days.
Afterwards, HTS headed toward Damascus, and on December 8, 2024, the Assad regime collapsed. The regime had survived more than a decade of civil war, but HTS defeated it in a week.
When HTS rolled into Damascus, many people assumed it would unleash chaos. Critics saw it as a bunch of “jihadists,” and Sharaa was still referred to by his war name, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
Many critics continued to call him Jolani, long after he had decided to use his real name.
THE HTS leadership had created a new government within months of taking Damascus, and they named Sharaa as president. They consolidated power and reached out to Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, and also Europe.
Sharaa and his lieutenants understood that they would need to get the US to end its sanctions on Syria for the country to thrive. Through Riyadh, Sharaa got a meeting with US President Donald Trump in the spring of 2025.
In March, Sharaa also met with the head of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi. Through this meeting, Sharaa was able to get the SDF to agree to integrate into the new Syrian state.
US Central Command was pleased. It had been concerned that the arrival of HTS in Damascus might lead to an ISIS resurgence. Instead, HTS showed it could keep ISIS in check, and by November, Syria was a member of the anti-ISIS coalition.
Clashes erupt in Alawite, Druze, and Bedouin communities
Not everything was smooth. In March, government supporters clashed with members of the Alawite minority in Latakia is killing hundreds. Later, the government supports and Bedouin tribes clashed with the Druze. This led Israel to intervene more heavily in Syria. Israel had already taken over an area near the border, and Israel seized the top of Mount Hermon.
Clashes with the Druze led Israel to carry out airstrikes in Damascus. Israeli politicians threatened Sharaa personally, calling him a “jihadist” and claiming he would be targeted for elimination. To warn off Israel, Sharaa turned to the US and the Trump administration. Trump had helped Israel get the hostages back and secured a ceasefire in Gaza.
Trump was also helping Israel with Iran and Lebanon issues. There was a trade-off to be made. The White House wanted Sharaa to succeed. Comments by Israeli ministers threatening him likely didn’t go over well in Washington. The Trump administration pushed to broker a deal between Jerusalem and Damascus. By early January, a limited agreement was in place.
Sharaa turned his attention to removing the SDF from two neighborhoods in Aleppo and then sent forces to remove the SDF from an area west of the Euphrates. When the SDF continued to refuse a deal with Damascus to integrate its forces, Sharaa seized the opportunity to launch an offensive into eastern Syria.
The SDF retreated.
Without US support, it didn’t want to fight the Syrian forces for control of places like Raqqa. In the space of around 48 hours, the SDF lost the areas it had taken control of since April 2015.
These were areas the SDF had liberated from ISIS. Now the Syrian government was rolling into these places. Sharaa had outplayed the SDF.
Sharaa and his government now control most of Syria. There are areas under SDF control in Kobane and also the Kurdish area between Derik, Qamishli, and Hasakah. The Druze also control Sweida. The Turks continue to control an area near Serekaniye.
However, as the SDF retreats, the Turkish-run area looks like it could be handed over to the Syrian government.
Sharaa has proven to be an adept player of geopolitical chess. Now he will be tested on winning the peace in Syria. Some are concerned that his forces could massacre Kurds or threaten Israel. Iraqi politicians are bolstering forces on the Iraqi border. There is a lot of mistrust of Sharaa. He has a long road ahead to show that he can do the right thing.