A day before a meeting between senior American and Iranian officials in Oman, Israeli officials estimate that there is a low likelihood of reaching agreements between Iran and the United States.
On Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will meet in Muscat, the capital of Oman, with United States President Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. “Iran is talking to us because it doesn’t want us to attack them,” Trump said on Thursday.
Al Jazeera reported that the US is demanding that Iran dismantle its nuclear program, reduce the range of its ballistic missiles so they cannot reach Israel, grant “a kind of amnesty” to those arrested during the 12-day war and the recent protests, reduce oil exports to China, and reach an agreement to end hostilities between Iran and the United States.
The same report claimed that Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt proposed a framework agreement under which Iran would freeze uranium enrichment at 3% and later be allowed to enrich to 1.5%. The 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% would be transferred to a third country, Iran would agree not to export weapons and technology to proxy groups, and would also commit not to use ballistic missiles.
US Vice President JD Vance said in an interview that “Trump will try to achieve whatever he can through non-military means- but if he feels that the military option is the only one left, he will choose that option.”
Conflict over topics to be discussed
One of the main issues where gaps remain between the US and Iran is what the talks will actually cover.
The Iranians insist, at least publicly, on discussing only the nuclear issue, while the US administration demands talks on additional matters.
“I think the room for flexibility exists only on the nuclear issue,” said Dr. Raz Zimmt, head of the Iran and Shiite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). “I see no room for flexibility on the proxy issue or on ballistic missiles. At most, the Iranians might say: ‘Let’s reach an agreement on the nuclear issue, and if that succeeds, then we can talk about other issues in the next stage.’”
Dr. Zimmt added that he would be very surprised if Iran agreed to any concessions on missiles, since they are currently the only tool that provides Iran with a certain level of deterrence - even against Israel. “Giving up the nuclear issue isn’t really a concession, because they don’t truly have a nuclear program; they have an air force that can’t take off - so how would they create deterrence?”
According to Dr. Zimmt, the major question is what Iran would demand in return for any concessions. “Is Trump willing to release billions of dollars to them? I hope not. Will the snapback sanctions be lifted? This is where many problems are expected.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told members of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Thursday that he does not know what President Trump will ultimately decide, but that he and the US president are in close contact at all levels.
Regarding the possibility that the regime in Tehran might decide to attack Israel, Netanyahu said, “If the Iranians attack us, we will respond with a force the likes of which has never been seen.”
During a meeting convened this week by Prime Minister Netanyahu with Trump’s envoy Witkoff, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said that “if Israel is attacked, we will strike surprising and unexpected targets.”