As reports online indicate that the US continues to ferry a large amount of air force and naval assets to the Middle East amid tensions with Iran, many countries that have opposed a conflict are silent.
In the past, most US allies and partners in the region appeared to be against a new conflict. This includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and others. However, the general sense in the region now is that the moves look like they could be a sign of war, but can be taken in stride.
The continued movement of US Air Force and US Navy elements to the region occurs amid the background of several regional trends. Many countries in the region attended the Munich Security Conference. This was important for Syria, the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq, and other states.
What else is happening in the region? In Iraq, there is still maneuvering to see who will be the next prime minister, president, and chief of the army. Shrewd bargaining is taking place between the Shi’ite Coordination group and the Kurdish KDP and PUK.
Meanwhile, many countries have recently joined the Palestinian Authority in condemning recent Israeli moves in the West Bank. “More than 80 countries and several international organizations on Tuesday condemned what they described as unilateral decisions and measures taken by Israeli authorities with the aim of expanding their ‘unlawful’ presence in the occupied West Bank,” Arab News noted.
At the same time, the Horn of Africa is in the spotlight for many countries. Saudi Arabia has been doing outreach to Ethiopia amid the Saudi-UAE tensions that developed over Yemen and the Red Sea. Israel has recognized Somaliland, which has ruffled feathers in Turkey, Riyadh, and also in Somalia.
“Turkey and Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding on energy cooperation during a visit by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Addis Ababa on Tuesday, the Turkish Energy Ministry said, adding the accord would lead to joint production and projects,” Reuters noted.
While many countries appear to accept the inevitability of a US clash with Iran, others are concerned. Al-Ain news in the UAE noted that there are threats to the Straits of Hormuz.
“With Iranian-American tensions escalating, the Strait of Hormuz is back in the spotlight, with live maneuvers increasing concerns about the world’s lifeline.”
The report noted “amid threats of US military action and widespread anti-government protests that erupted in late December and January, Iran conducted a live-fire military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz in early February. Ships were warned of the exercise at the time, but the strait was not closed.”
Most countries are taking a wait-and-see approach to what comes next. In the past, some of the countries had done outreach to the White House and appeared to be concerned about conflict.
There was also talk of some countries not letting the US use airspace for possible Iran strikes. It is not clear if that messaging, in January, has changed today amid the US Air Force build-up.
However, the force build-up by the US has been done publicly, with many social media accounts able to track US Air Force warplanes in real-time as they appear to move from North America across the Atlantic.
Military flights signal US-Iran tensions
Warplanes don’t need to fly openly, with transponders on, so that everyone can track them on websites that track aircraft.
The fact that the US is telegraphing its build-up, which some have compared to the build-up of US military assets before the invasion of Iraq or Afghanistan, illustrates that this is also a pressure campaign on Iran.
In the wake of the round of talks in Geneva, much is at stake. For countries in the Middle East, they know they can’t change the future, so they prefer to work on issues that they can change, such as issues in the Red Sea, in Baghdad, or in Syria.