Having the Houthis join a month in indicates that Iran can potentially spread the conflict to the Red Sea, which would increase complexity for the US and its air power in the region.
When the US and Israel began attacks on Iran on February 28, the regime had several response options. The Islamic Republic started by targeting Israel and the Gulf states with missiles and drones.
Three days after the first attack, they encouraged Hezbollah to strike Israel. In addition, they operationalized Iranian-backed militias in Iraq to carry out attacks.
The Iranian response has been complex. Thousands of drones and missiles have been aimed at the Gulf countries. In total, Iran has targeted a dozen countries and closed the Straits of Hormuz.
The majority of Iranian attacks have struck the Gulf, primarily the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have carried out around 500 attacks on targets there. These include the United States Embassy in Baghdad and its consulate in Erbil, the UAE consulate in Erbil, and Kurdish forces and groups in the Kurdistan Region.
With the war spreading to Iraq and Lebanon, and Iran feeling it holds the cards in Hormuz, Tehran waited before encouraging the Houthis to join the offensive.
Iran has been seeing signs that the US wants the war to end. It also knows that increased American forces are moving to the region, potentially to invade Iranian islands.
While the US says it has passed notes to Iran – via Pakistan – to secure a possible ceasefire, Tehran does not trust the US. It claims that the US misled the regime about previous rounds of talks, using them to gather US air power in the region to carry out attacks.
Iran believes that the Americans purposely tricked Tehran, lied during negotiations, and had planned to carry out a surprise attack all along.
In Iran’s narrative, it is the victim, but it also wants to show it has power in the region. By keeping the Straits of Hormuz closed, it knows pressure is building to reopen the waterway.
However, Iran believes that the US and Israel will have trouble dealing with the Houthis.
The two allies have not been able to stop the Houthis in the past. In fact, the US tried airstrikes in March 2025 but eventually decided the attacks were diminishing returns.
Iran's 'ring of fire' strategy
Iran and the Houthis believe that creating a “ring of fire” in the region that stretches from Lebanon via Iraq and the Gulf to Yemen, several thousand kilometers of frontline, will enflame the region and show the US that this war was a mistake.
The Islamic Republic wants to show that the attack on Iran, carried out as talks were underway, will not end easily for the US. Tehran wants to show that it will not only absorb blows but can also strategically expand the conflict.
The Houthis represent a broader strategy for Iran, potentially affecting a new global shipping lane via the Red Sea.
With the world already on edge about the Hormuz closure, this new front could spook the global economy.
Iran knows, and the Houthis know, that they don’t have to do much to threaten the Red Sea: All they have to do is make it seem that there is a threat. While Israel has also had a Red Sea strategy in supporting Somaliland, the Iranian answer via the Houthis is a new card that has been put into play.
Saudi Arabia fought the Houthis for over five years, from 2015 to 2020, but saw that this was a difficult war in mountainous terrain in Yemen. Riyadh and the UAE had a falling out over the Yemen strategy.
As such, the Houthis have already been able to outplay countries in the region. Iran knows this and believes that, like the Houthis, Iran can succeed despite setbacks.
The Houthis successfully hid missiles in caves for years, and the US, Israel, Saudi and others were unable to stop the missile and drone attacks or dislodge the group.