There are concerns that a new political crisis in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq may be brewing. While the region has been divided for decades and this is not a new phenomenon, a lot is at stake today. Iran continues to target the region with drones and missiles. It has also pressured Iraq to expel Kurdish Iranian opposition groups from the Kurdistan Region. This means that the Islamic Republic may be seeking to divide and weaken the region.
The United States withdrew forces from Iraq on September 30. Iran may see that as an opportunity.
According to Rudaw media in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), “Patriotic Union of Kurdistan [PUK] leader Bafel Talabani announced on Thursday that his party has decided to withdraw from the Kurdistan Regional Government cabinet in protest against the reactivation of the Kurdistan Parliament without the PUK’s participation, declaring the legislature illegitimate.”
“This government has failed. Therefore, the first decision of the PUK leadership following this thing [parliament reactivation] is that we will immediately withdraw from this failed government, which calls itself the government of Kurdistan,” Talabani said in a video message.
This is not the first time Talabani and the KRG leadership of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) have been at odds.
In 2017, when Iraqi federal forces attacked Kurds in Kirkuk, Talabani also released a statement as PUK forces withdrew from Kirkuk.
At the time, it was believed the PUK had made a deal with Tehran and Baghdad. PUK has been seen as historically closer to Iran not just geographically – in Sulaimaniyah, where it is popular – but also politically.
“What does this mean? It means that we will use all the force and strength we have to provide people living in our areas [Sulaimani and Halabja] with anything they need,” Talabani stated.
Rudaw added, “His remarks came after a meeting of the PUK leadership earlier on Thursday, a day after the rival Kurdistan Democratic Party spearheaded an initiative to reconvene parliament with the support of several minority representatives, smaller parties, and lawmakers who broke ranks with their parties, including three PUK members.”
What comes next for Iraq, Kurdistan?
Meanwhile, in Erbil on Wednesday, KDP politician Vala Farid was unanimously elected parliament speaker, Christian quota representative Rami Noori was named deputy speaker, and Turkmen quota representative Muna Qahwachi was chosen as secretary in a session of the local parliament, “attended by 52 lawmakers, narrowly exceeding the 51-member quorum required in the 100-seat legislature.” The KDP has 39 seats in the local parliament, and PUK has 23.
An analysis in Iraq’s Shafaq News described the issues now affecting KRG President Nechirvan Barzani’s “strategic patience.” It argued that his “pragmatic approach has often been viewed as a reliable channel for building dialogue and untangling difficult political disputes.”
The article added that “the paradox, however, is that the same strategic patience that has helped preserve the Kurdistan Region’s external balances could become a factor in prolonging domestic crises if it remains limited to de-escalation without reform.
“The constraints facing President Nechirvan Barzani cannot be separated from the shared political responsibility of the forces governing the Kurdistan Region, as the problem is not whether one individual can contain disputes but whether the political parties are prepared to overcome these obstacles, unify institutions and decision-making centers, and move from managing crises to addressing their underlying causes.”
In essence, Barzani’s attempt to make all sides happy may have caused issues to fester and grow.
The concern is about what comes next.
Meanwhile, US Envoy to Iraq and Syria Tom Barrack was in Baghdad on November 5 for meetings with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi.
“The Middle East is a Rubik’s Cube. Every side touches every other, turn one face, and you move the rest,” he wrote on X/Twitter. “No single country, and no outside power, solves it alone. It comes together only when the nations of the region decide to turn the pieces themselves, patiently and together. Iraq is doing exactly that,” Barrack added.
He went on to praise Iraq’s current prime minister. “Under Prime Minister al-Zaidi, [Iraq] is choosing sovereignty over dependency, investment over stagnation, and partnership over proxy. The United States is proud to stand with Iraq: deepening our economic and commercial ties, opening the door to American companies and Iraqi talent alike, and building prosperity for the benefit of all.”