The ceasefire announced in the early hours of Tuesday morning could bring some much-needed respite after 12 days of Israel bombing Iran, Iranian missiles killing Israelis, and the US finally entering the fray.
But while missiles may no longer be flying, a crucial question still hangs in the balance: the future of the Islamic Republic.
At a Monday press conference in Paris, Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi presented his plan for a viable future for Iranians outside of the Islamic regime, which has held the country in its grip for 46 years.
“I have a direct message for [Iranian Supreme Leader] Ali Khamenei,” Pahlavi stated. “Step down. And if you do, you will receive a fair trial and due process of law, which is more than you have ever given any Iranian.
“To other senior regime officials: Those of you whose hands are soiled with the blood of the Iranian people, you too will have to face justice. But we will not repeat the mistakes made in other failed transitions. To those of you who are loyal to the Iranian nation and not the Islamic Republic, there is a future for you in a democratic Iran if you join the people now. The choice is yours to make.”
Pahlavi was directing his message at the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the regime’s feared enforcer.
“To that end, today, I am announcing that I am establishing a formal channel for military, security, and police personnel to reach out directly to me, my team, and our expanding operation. This is a secure platform to efficiently manage the growing volume of inbound communications and requests from those breaking with the regime and seeking to join our movement.”
The IRGC's mission
The IRGC was founded shortly after the 1979 revolution to protect the Islamic Republic’s religious control over the country and to act as a counterbalance to the regular Iranian Army, many of whose officers were still loyal to the shah of Iran and, therefore, could not be trusted by the revolutionary regime.
Since 1979, its authority and influence have spread throughout the world, and it is considered one of the leading sponsors of Islamic terror globally. The group is now designated a terrorist organization by the United States.
What began after the revolution as an ideologically driven force to protect the Islamic regime has since evolved into the country’s most powerful military, economic, and political entity.
Today, the IRGC’s fingerprints are on everything that emanates from Iran, from nuclear enrichment to regional proxy wars. However, it is the organization’s reach into Iran’s oil industry that has proven the most lucrative.
This is not just a case of military overreach. It is the systematic conversion of a national resource into a war chest for militarism and repression – part of the kleptocracy that controls Iran. The IRGC has transformed itself into a parallel state, with its own economy, ideology, and global ambitions all supported by Khamenei and fueled by oil that rightly belongs to the Iranian people but is used to finance their subjugation.
One dissident within Iran told The Jerusalem Post last week, “There is no support for the IRGC at all. On the contrary, even those who previously remained silent have now become critics. This regime has no supporters. Believe this key reality.”
PAHLAVI’S OFFER is a crucial and pivotal moment for Iran’s future. Should IRGC members remain loyal to the regime – and many have profited from it over the years – the regime stands a good chance of surviving. Should its members flock to Pahlavi and desert Khamenei, then the end of the Islamic Republic could well be in sight.
History shows us that authoritarian regimes do not collapse when they lose public support. They collapse when they lose the loyalty of their coercive institutions.
In Iran’s own history, the 1979 revolution succeeded only when the shah’s army fractured and refused to fire on civilians. In Tunisia and Egypt, the fall of autocratic leaders hinged on the military’s decision to abandon the regime.
But in Syria, the Assad regime survived for so long precisely because the army, dominated by Alawite loyalists, stuck by him.
The question is: Which path will Iran’s military and security forces take if mass unrest or elite fragmentation grows?
Pahlavi’s outreach is significant, but defections are not easily orchestrated. Officers risk execution, imprisonment, or retaliation against their families. Many benefit from the system through patronage or corruption. There is no clear post-regime security guarantee or transitional plan.
It is important to note that the IRGC leadership has been decimated since the start of the Israel-Iran war.
Israel has killed several high-ranking Iranian officials, including Hossein Salami, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces and, more importantly, commander-in-chief of the IRGC; Gholam Ali Rashid, deputy commander-in-chief of the armed forces and head of the IRGC’s Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters; and Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force, the IRGC’s special forces.
It is hard for any organization to recover from such a depletion of experience and knowledge, and perhaps it will leave other, lower-ranked members questioning their futures.
The Islamic Republic has weathered protests, sanctions, assassinations, and isolation. But it has never faced a mass defection from its own enforcers. If Iran’s soldiers and commanders begin walking away from Khamenei and the IRGC, the regime’s fall may be far swifter than anyone could expect.
That’s why Pahlavi’s call matters. Time will prove whether those inside Iran listen to him or not, but he has offered a way out of 46 years of Islamic rule. Whether Iranians inside the system take it is the question that now hangs over the Islamic Republic’s future.