Esmail Qaani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, appears to have survived the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran despite being one of the IRGC commanders who was initially listed as having been killed on June 13 when the war began.
However, videos that circulated on Tuesday appear to show him alive and in Tehran. How he survived remains to be seen, and confirmation from sources regarding his role and status will come eventually. However, the videos are clearly designed to show that he survived and is able to walk around Iran in the open.
Qaani was appointed the head of the Quds Force after his predecessor, Qasem Soleimani, was killed in January 2020 by a US drone strike. As such, Qaani knew the risks of assuming command of the organization.
The Quds Force is the part of the IRGC tasked with working abroad. It carries out support operations for Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah or the Houthis. It also aids in other matters, including advising Tehran’s partners and allies abroad.
Soleimani was a key part of Iran’s regional policy. He helped construct a network of proxy groups and worked closely with their leaders, such as Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah. The former Quds Force head also played a key role in encouraging Russia to intervene in the Syrian civil war in 2015.
Before Moscow’s intervention, Iran had sent thousands of IRGC members to Syria, as did Hezbollah fighters. It’s likely that Soleimani also helped enable volunteers from Pakistan and Afghanistan to fight in Syria.
Soleimani was more well known than Qaani
Qaani was not well known before he assumed control of the Quds Force, while Soleimani was a much more well-known figure. The latter had an air of mystery and intrigue around him and took on mythical status in the region. By contrast, Qaani was seen as less interesting and less competent.
This reputation may not have been fair. He played a role in encouraging Iranian-backed groups to work closely together. He likely was behind helping broker meetings between Hamas, Hezbollah, and other groups in Lebanon, as well as empowering the Houthis.
However, Qaani was seen more as an expert on Afghanistan and other fronts and less versed in the Arabic world that Soleimani had dominated. As such, he was seen as a bit of an outsider. Over the years, rumors emerged that mocked him as supporting Israel because he was perceived as having been so incompetent when it came to Iran’s policy. His incompetence could only mean that he was purposely weakening Tehran.
The Hamas October 7 attack, for instance, is now perceived as a disaster for Iran. It dragged Hezbollah into a war with Israel and gave Jerusalem an opening to destroy the terror group. This, in turn, helped topple the Assad regime. Then, the Jewish state was able to launch its 12-day war on Iran, eliminating key IRGC commanders and Iranian nuclear scientists.
Qaani was initially assumed to be one of those killed in the Israeli strikes, but his death was not confirmed by the Iranian regime. He has always appeared to be wary of assassination.
Previous videos have shown him appearing to wear a bulletproof vest under his clothes, giving him the look of being kind of bloated and bulky. It’s unclear if he wears ill-fitting clothes, put on weight during his time as commander, or is wearing some kind of body armor (which would not save someone from an airstrike). Nevertheless, it appears he may have survived the war.
This would put him in place to continue coordinating Iran’s backing of the Houthis and the Iraqi Shi’ite militias, the Popular Mobilization Forces. They include various groups such as Kata’ib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and Asaib Ahl al-Haq.
Qaani will want to shore up support for these groups, Hezbollah, as well as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. If Qaani is replaced, his replacement will have to take on this task.