The latest twists and turns in the economic fortunes of the Islamic Republic of Iran continue next week, with the announcement that the planned fuel price hike will take effect at midnight on December 13.
While the authorities are struggling to contain internal dissatisfaction over economic pressures, environmental disasters, and the continued fight to implement strict Islamic law, most notably with female dress codes and the hijab, the move to increase fuel prices could potentially push Iranians over the edge.
The regime has been here before.
In 2019, nationwide protests swept the country for four days between November 15-19, triggered by a sudden 50–200% hike in fuel prices. Demonstrations began as small, peaceful gatherings on the evening of November 15 but rapidly spread to more than 20 cities within hours as footage circulated online.
What began as anger over fuel costs quickly became a movement calling for political change, demanding the removal of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The authorities moved swiftly and brutally to crush the unrest. According to human rights groups, security forces opened fire on demonstrators from rooftops, helicopters, and at close range, killing large numbers of people. The government imposed a near-total shutdown of the internet for almost six days in an effort to block images of the crackdown and conceal the true scale of casualties.
Families of victims were allegedly pressured not to speak publicly or hold funerals, and bodies were removed to undisclosed locations.
Some 321 protesters were killed in November 2019, according to Amnesty International, while thousands more were arrested. Some reports (including the months of unrest which followed) state up to 1,500 Iranians may have been killed.
More than 700 banks, including the Central Bank, were attacked or burned, alongside multiple government buildings and religious centers, including sites bearing images of Khamenei and his predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Dozens of military bases also came under assault.
The uprising spread far beyond major cities and university campuses, drawing support from working-class and rural communities and prompting a faster and harsher state response.
It became known as Bloody November or Bloody Aban, using the Iranian calendar.
It took months for the unrest to die down completely, as spillover clashes lasted until July 2020, until the authorities finally regained control.
Protests grow, even at risk to Iranians
Protests have been growing in recent months in Iran, as has the authoritarian crackdown.
Despite taking risks to their own safety, unrest continues beneath the surface. Teachers, pensioners, steel workers, medical staff, and energy workers frequently gather to demand salaries they are owed or to protest staggering inflation.
Although permitted and smaller in nature, these gatherings still show genuine dissatisfaction with a government already facing deep economic and environmental crises.
Large-scale uprisings, however, require a spark or moment that galvanizes ordinary citizens. “In 2022, it was the killing of a woman (Mahsa Amini) over her hijab,” Iranian analyst Khosro Isfahani told The Jerusalem Post. “In 2019, it was the sudden fuel price increase. We are waiting for the next mistake.”
The 2019 protests have been credited with being the largest challenge to the Islamic regime since the Iranian Revolution.
Days into them, Reuters, after confirming with sources, reported that Khamenei appeared impatient, gathering his top security and government officials together and telling them, “Do whatever it takes to stop them.”
Six years on, and particularly with the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests still in the minds of many Iranians, accompanied by the general unhappiness at the economic situation the Islamic Republic has found itself in, many feel that the newest fuel price hike could well be the spark that lights the fire.
As Isfahani said, it could be their next mistake.