While Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s absence has been largely mocked by his opposition and interpreted by Western media as a sign of fear, it has demonstrated how deeply embedded his network of control in Iran truly is, a new report by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) noted on Thursday.
Reports have suggested that the 86-year-old Islamist has been hiding out in a secure bunker, leading Iranian critics to label him “Moushe-Ali” (Mouse Ali). Nevertheless, years of embedding his loyal clerics throughout civil society have enabled him to maintain control, the organization noted.
After the 12 Day War in June, which saw many Iranian officials and nuclear masterminds killed in targeted strikes, concerns about an attempt on Khamenei began to shape his public profile.
His initial absence of nearly 30 days has seemingly led the Islamic regime’s leader to begin taking a step back from public appearances, especially since the US’s operation to arrest Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro last month.
Although acknowledging some level of restructuring within the regime, especially with the appointment of Ali Larijani as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the creation of a new Defense Council, UANI claimed that there is insufficient evidence to suggest a fundamental change in Tehran’s power structure.
Arguing that the reality is more nuanced, the non-profit stressed that the extent of Khamenei’s loyal network was becoming increasingly apparent. It said that they aimed to ensure his influence and authority remained intact even in his absence from the public and political arena.
For decades, the Bayt-e Rahbari (The Office of the Supreme Leader) has manufactured a hidden political and economic empire, extending across the military and security establishments, to reach into Iran’s cultural and economic sectors. This highlights the regime’s durability, UANI said.
Only two months after Khamenei took power in 1989, he established the Bayt, appointing several loyal clerics with security and military backgrounds to positions of power. By 1994, he is said to have used his influence to pressure and manipulate the Qom seminary into giving them the title of marja (the highest level of Twelver Shia religious cleric) through the office.
Subsequently, Khamenei is said to have grown his Bayt to include over 4,000 employees in its core office and over 40,000 in affiliated roles, expanding his influence over three decades.
To control presidencies, the supreme leader began embedding an office in the Bayt parallel to every government ministry, which allowed expansive supervision and ensured every decision was aligned with Khamenei’s personal doctrine. Even the military is heavily controlled by the Islamic dictator, with military officials needing the Bayt’s approval before receiving a promotion beyond the rank of second brigadier.
By establishing a network of loyal followers in the most senior levels of the Iranian military, the report claims he was able to “transform the IRGC into a praetorian and personalistic army.”
The Bayt’s Military Office is headed by Brig.-Gen. Mohammad Shirazi, who has personal and familial ties to Khamenei.
The Bayt’s Counterintelligence Office is headed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) member Hojatoleslam Gholam-Hossein Ramazani, one of Khamenei’s most trusted followers.
His representative across Iran’s armed forces, Ayatollah Ali Saeedi, is deeply embedded within Khamenei’s personal circles.
Through strategic layers of bureaucratization, cooptation, and coercion, Khameini’s office also controls Iran’s seminary schools, the report noted.
With his Clerical Basij, a militia embedded within seminaries, the regime is able to monitor dissent, promote loyalty, and quickly silence critics. The surveillance, patronage, and paramilitary structures within the schools guarantee that only voices legitimizing Khamenei’s reign are allowed to become influential religious scholars.
Successor plans limit Iran change even if Khamenei dies
While Khamenei may be killed in a potential conflict with the US and Israel, the careful planning of his successor and the reach of the Bay’t across every sector means that a genuine change in Iran will be “highly improbable,” the report concluded.
The Islamic Republic’s most enduring strength lies in this hidden architecture of control, which will continue to shape the country’s future long after Khamenei himself departs from the scene.”
The report noted that helping to oversee the vast network are Khamenei’s four sons: Mostafa, Mojtaba, Masoud, and Meysam.
Mojtaba, the second-born son, is widely regarded as politically influential and is thought to be the most likely successor, while his elder brother has kept a low public profile.
To bring down the current regime, policymakers must target the Bayt with a combination of sanctions, cyber operations, and military measures, the UANI report insisted, not just the supreme leader and his potential successor.