In a stunningly open and clear announcement, Hezbollah late Wednesday potentially threw off all of the assumptions and calculations about its intentions in the event of war with Iran.
The terror group gave two clear pronouncements that could substantially impact the course of war and peace in the region.
In the first one, Hezbollah said that it will stay out of the war and not attack Israel if any American or Israeli attack on Iran is limited to certain Iranian capabilities. As a second point, the terror group said that it will join the war, which likely would include attacking Israel, if attacks on the Islamic Republic are aimed at killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or at toppling the entire regime.
Of course, the group could be lying, but in this case, it is in its own interests to tell the truth.
Until now, Hezbollah was in a terrible position if the US attacked Iran.
On one hand, it could feel like it must intervene.
If it does not intervene now after it did not help when Israel attacked the Islamic Republic in June 2025, then why should Tehran continue to provide it money, arms, and training?
How would Hezbollah proceed if Khamenei were killed?
If the ayatollahs have their back against the wall and Khamenei himself is killed, how could Hezbollah's leaders look their rank and file Shiite fighters in the eye if they do not at least join the battle symbolically?
But joining could be even worse.
Maybe if they did not join and stayed on the sidelines, they might lose the loyalty of some foot soldiers and have to undertake a public relations campaign to maintain their legitimacy, but they and their followers would remain alive.
Their power over Lebanon as the strongest military force and their ability to potentially threaten Israel with some tens of thousands of rockets to defend their own survival would remain.
In contrast, if they got involved, Israel, the US, or both could use the excuse to further crush them and maybe weaken them so much that they lose control over Lebanon, which they have managed to maintain to date despite their massive losses.
Now, maybe it can influence the US and Israeli strategy.
Hezbollah already knows that Trump has been hesitant about whether to carry out a more targeted attack on Iran regarding its nuclear and ballistic missile programs versus trying to kill Khamenei and take down the entire Islamic regime.
Now, if Hezbollah succeeds and Trump either cuts a deal with Iran or "only" attacks Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, while leaving Khamenei and the ayatollahs in power, it can stay out of the war and claim that it helped Iran simply by making its calibrated threats.
Further, if it has to join the war in the end and gets battered, it will try to explain to those of its fighters who are killed that it tried to avoid getting involved, and only intervened because the US attack crossed the ultimate threshold of trying to end the Islamic regime in Iran.
After all of that, how will this impact Israel?
To date, Israel has heavily preferred that America go all in and topple the entire regime.
However, Israel was also saying publicly that it expected Hezbollah to attack the Jewish state no matter how big or small Washinton's attack on Tehran would be, and even if Jerusalem did not play a part.
Does that still hold?
If Hezbollah is believed, and the US could reduce Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile threat that much more, without overthrowing the ayatollahs, and without Israel being attacked by Hezbollah, would the IDF shift its perspective to preferring a smaller assault on Iran carrying a smaller cost to Israel?
No Israeli officials would comment for this article, not even to provide a hint about their thoughts.
That unusual situation, with officials not wanting to talk, suggests either that they want Israel's exact strategies and priorities kept under wraps at this late stage or that they were taken by surprise by Hezbollah's announcement and do not know what to make of it or whether to adjust their priorities.
Regardless of the reason, if Israel does not quickly take a stance on this issue and what Hezbollah's statement means for the balance of war and peace, it will probably mean that America will mostly ignore the issue, since Hezbollah would mostly threaten Israel and not US forces.
If Hezbollah does later manage to harm Israel in the event that America goes for an all-out attack on Khamenei and Tehran, questions will be asked later about to what extent Israeli officials weighed in on this unexpected shift and strategic moment.