A series of developments in recent hours has underscored rising US military readiness in the region.
These include a direct briefing by the commander of US Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, to US President Donald Trump; the arrival of eight US aerial refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport; the deployment of an F-22 squadron to Ovda Airbase in southern Israel; the expected arrival of another US destroyer in the area; and, most significantly, the evacuation of staff from the US Embassy in Israel along with an advisory urging American citizens to leave the country on regular commercial flights.
Taken together, these moves suggest the United States is edging closer to a military campaign - a step that could prove unavoidable.
Still, major questions remain.
When would a strike occur - tonight, tomorrow, or later this week? How would it be carried out? What are the targets and objectives? Is the aim to weaken the Iranian regime itself, or is the focus limited to Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities? At this stage, much remains unclear.
In Israel, officials are closely monitoring developments. Within the defense establishment, assessments are more concrete. The IDF has prepared a broad operational plan addressing multiple scenarios, contingencies, and possible responses.
'The IDF is ready to defend you'
Ahead of Shabbat, IDF Spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin delivered a clear message:
“This week as well, we are aware of the sense of uncertainty and the tension among the public in light of regional developments. The IDF is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and is alert and ready to defend you. We are operating in full coordination with our partners in order to strengthen defenses. I stress again, there is no change to the guidelines. If there is a change, I will be here, and we will provide an alert accordingly.”
Israeli assessments indicate that if the Americans act alone, Iran will likely respond by targeting US interests in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere in the Middle East. At a later stage, Tehran could escalate by partially or fully closing the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to apply global economic pressure on Washington. Attacks on fuel reserves in neighboring countries are also considered a possible Iranian response.
Will Iran take direct action against Israel?
Would Iran take direct action against Israel? It is difficult to predict. The prevailing assessment is that Tehran would prefer to avoid such a move. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has conveyed a firm message: any action against Israel would trigger Israel’s entry into the campaign. Israel has already demonstrated its capabilities vis-à-vis Iran.
Could Iran activate the Houthis, Hezbollah, or other proxies? This is viewed as a plausible option, though the balance of deterrence remains a significant factor.
An attack from Lebanon, whether by Hezbollah or another Palestinian organization, would prompt a powerful IDF response against a broad range of targets in Lebanon, including key sites not directly linked to Hezbollah. Such action could set the group back years. Signals emerging from Israel in recent days suggest the response would not be limited to Hezbollah alone.
Israel could find itself in direct confrontation with Iran under several scenarios: if Tehran miscalculates and fires directly at Israel; if Washington asks the IDF to join operations from the outset; or if proxy forces in Yemen or Lebanon ignite a wider conflict that draws Israel into open fighting.
Israel’s position is stronger than before
How prepared is Israel? In recent weeks, the IDF has finalized multiple operational plans, both defensive and offensive.
On the defensive front, Israel’s position is stronger than it was last summer. Comprehensive US early warning systems operating over Iran would assist Israel’s air defense arrays, providing longer response times and more precise detection ahead of interception.
More broadly, the IDF’s defensive doctrine includes offensive action - striking missiles and launchers while they remain on the ground. Military Intelligence and the Air Force have been engaged in such efforts for an extended period.
In recent weeks, the Home Front Command has strengthened preparedness based on lessons learned from Operation Rising Lion. Numerous drills were conducted, particularly with emergency services, including Magen David Adom, fire and rescue services, the police, and local authorities. During the summer, the IDF experienced firsthand the scale of damage Iran could inflict on Israel’s home front, and those lessons were incorporated into civilian defense planning.
For now, the IDF remains prepared, awaiting the US president's decision on when and how to act.