Recent naval movements in the region have highlighted two grave threats to Israel’s existence. The US Navy has withdrawn its most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, from the Mediterranean, while the Iranian Alborz warship has entered the Red Sea through the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait. This may or may not be a coincidence, but it highlights two alarming trends: Israel is encircled by jihadists who seek to wipe us out, and Israel is too reliant on the US for military support, which is not assured. We must act urgently to counter these threats and protect our people.
An exponential threat
Jihadist Islam is advancing steadily towards a confrontation with the West, with one clear aim: to annihilate the infidel and spread Islam. It does not hide its intentions and acts on them consistently. Jihadists are expanding across Africa, Europe, and the United States, mobilizing supporters, building infrastructure, radicalizing locals, and carrying out terror.
Over Christmas, Muslim extremists killed 195 Christians, including many women and children, in Nigeria. This was barely reported in the mainstream media; just another one of nearly 50,000 jihadist terror attacks in the past 40 years. A trend that is growing in number and scope over time.
Israel is the frontline of this war. We are fighting jihadists at various levels of intensity in Gaza, Judea and Samaria, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran. While these terrorist groups have different names and forms, they all follow the same ideology: jihad, and for the most part are directed by the same mastermind, Iran.
In for the long haul
The reality on the ground is undeniable. Israel will be involved in a continuous war for survival on multiple fronts for years to come.
THERE WERE many failures of Israeli political, military, and security leaders in the years leading up to October 7. These will surely be examined and debated for decades. However, there are two strategic fallacies that we need to expose and correct immediately. We cannot afford to wait until “after the war.”
Bold assumptions
The first fallacy is the common assumption that the Middle East has entered a new era and that a full-scale war, let alone a war on all fronts simultaneously, is not a realistic scenario. This misguided view led the country to a huge lack of readiness.
While October 7 was a shocking wake-up call, we have not yet articulated and accepted the problem: Israel is engaged in a long-term, ongoing, and intensifying conflict between jihadist Islam and the West. And it will likely worsen in the coming years. We must declare this clearly, debate it openly, and embrace it mentally. If we do not, Israel will be woefully unprepared for the future escalation.
The second fallacy is the common belief that we can depend on the US to defend us. The US has always been our most valued and respected ally, and most Americans still appreciate the importance of maintaining superpower status, supporting allies, and advancing democratic countries like Israel around the world. However, American public opinion and demographics are changing. The withdrawal of the USS Gerald R Ford, the political difficulties in approving the recent $14.5 billion aid package, and the limited supply of military munitions to enable a restricted battle in Gaza without enough firepower to eliminate Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran send a clear message: We are helping you, but we don’t really have your back. A harsh reality. While Israel should obviously heavily invest in the strategic relationship with America, it would be unwise to rely on them entirely. We must take immediate action to increase the size and strength of our military and become self-reliant in our ability to produce the arms and munitions needed to fight a full-scale war on all fronts simultaneously.
In many ways, Israel today is in a similar position to the United States in 1940. The public has not yet realized that we are entering a long-term, multi-front war and that without massive American support, our military arsenal is inadequate. In 1940, when president Franklin D. Roosevelt recognized that the American military was not ready for war, he boldly appointed William Knudsen, then CEO of General Motors, as chairman of the Office of Production Management and tasked him with preparing the country for war. Over a period of 18 months, American military spending increased by an unprecedented 1000%, and under Knudsen’s leadership, the American military industrial complex boosted production and turned the 18th largest military in the world into the largest and most powerful one. In parallel, Roosevelt spoke regularly to the public, preparing the nation for war and positioning the US as the “great arsenal of democracy.” The result was total victory.
Israel today needs brave, resolute, and decisive leadership and a clear plan to rapidly scale up the IDF, our military industry, and munitions production. We need a Roosevelt and a Knudsen to prepare us psychologically, financially, and logistically to be self-sufficient for a prolonged full-scale war with the jihadists that surround us. If we get this wrong, there may not be anyone left to conduct a commission of inquiry.
The writer is an Israeli attorney, activist, and businessman.