The war in Gaza has turned Israel into a strategic campaign issue for President Joe Biden and the leading Republican candidate, former president Donald Trump.
With the 2024 race for the White House already in full swing following the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, the candidates are likely preparing their talking points.
“Israel will be a major issue going into the 2024 presidential election, both on the Democratic side where Jews want to see a strong stance for Israel by the Biden administration and, even more so, for the base of the Republican Party: Bible-believing Christians who will want to see Trump stand with Israel in its greatest time of need,” said Israel Allies Foundation president Josh Reinstein.
The latest Harvard CAPS-Harris poll published this week of more than 2,300 registered US voters found that 80% of American voters support Israel over Hamas, including the majority (57%) of those aged 18-24.
Can Donald Trump rally his base with pro-Israel rhetoric?
If he wants to rally his base, Trump is aware that a shift in his rhetoric is necessary for the upcoming election. An NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa voters, held shortly before the caucus, found that nearly half (43%) of Nikki Haley voters said they would back Biden over Trump.
Just this week, a prominent evangelical leader, Franklin Graham – son of the late Billy Graham – was in Israel making a $4 million donation to Magen David Adom. Graham told The Jerusalem Post that he and his organization, Samaritan’s Purse, would continue to fund Israel through this crisis.
Israelis should know “there are millions of people in the United States who support Israel, not only with prayer but also with finances,” Graham said.
A few days before, Passages [Israel] alums and funders brought $500,000 raised entirely by American Christians to two southern Israeli communities: Kfar Aza and Netiv Ha’asara.
The former president has offered minimal insights on the Israel-Hamas conflict, and those he has provided have not been too becoming. Trump called Defense Minister Yoav Gallant a “jerk” in October. He accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who he already holds a grudge against for congratulating Biden on his win, of “letting him down.”
“He was not prepared, and Israel was not prepared,” Trump said shortly after the massacre.
Trump also praised Hezbollah as “very smart.”
“Well, he is not president right now,” former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee unabashedly defended Trump during a visit to Israel last month.
But if Trump wants the White House, he will have to stand with the Jewish state – even if he is not inherently pro-Israel or if he thinks that Israel has not managed the war well enough.
Trump does have one of the most pro-Israel track records of any previous president. He moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognized the Golan Heights, and got the Abraham Accords signed, among other actions.
The question facing Republicans, however, is whether Trump can be trusted to follow that same line should he return to the White House.
“Trump can be trusted,” Reinstein said. “Rhetoric does not play much into the question; track record matters. People can be very supportive of Israel, but not supporting the country and people can be outwardly criticizing Israel, and then when it comes time to be supportive, they are.
“I don’t think anyone can argue with Trump’s track record when it comes to Israel.”
ONE OF the hot-button issues regarding Israel in this campaign is expected to be the notion of a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians – a solution that the Biden administration is trying to force on Israel if it wants US support in its war against Hamas.
Already last April, when the Senate passed a resolution ahead of Israel’s 75th birthday, Republican leadership nixed two-state language. And that was before October 7.
Only one poll, published last month by Lifeway Research on behalf of the Philos Project, found that 81% of US Christians believe in a two-state solution. So, it is likely that Republicans who keep Israel in mind at the ballot boxes would not vote for a president pushing such a plan on Israel.
Christian leaders have said during visits that the Republican Party would likely move toward empowering Israel to make its own decisions. So, instead of another “Deal of the Century,” a Republican White House is expected to be more hands-off and let Israel decide for itself when it comes to peace in the Middle East.
How can Joe Biden deal with the Israel issue ahead of 2024 elections?
On the other side of the aisle, Biden will also have to deal with the Israel issue, as 55% of his funding comes from the Jewish community. If before October 7 there were tensions between Israel and the Jewish Diaspora, since the massacre that has started to change. Just as Israelis are more unified than ever, so is the Diaspora with Israel.
A December 2023 poll by Schoen Cooperman Research found that 81% of American Jews support Israel’s continuing its actions in Gaza until it can “recover all Israeli hostages and remove Hamas from power.”
As such, Biden will have to appear to be on Israel’s side even as he and his administration push Israel to put the brakes on its Gaza offensive.
Biden is also cautioning Israel against attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. At the same time, Israel may feel the need to assure the residents of northern Israel that they can return to their homes.
However, the larger Democratic Party is not necessarily as supportive of Israel as the Jews, and there is a fear that voters could stay home in protest of Biden’s pro-Israel policies, thereby putting Biden between a rock and a hard place.
Israel holds some cards here, too. For example, if Israel decided to attack Iran’s nuclear capabilities ahead of the November election, the price of oil would catapult, and that could be a disaster for Biden.
The Republicans will likely leverage Biden’s foreign policy decisions as a focal point of criticism. They could highlight not only the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East but also the Russian-Ukraine war, tensions between North and South Korea, and the resurgence of the Taliban.
Additionally, they are likely to condemn Biden’s August resolution to unfreeze $6 billion in Iranian funds, part of an agreement securing the release of five detained US citizens. Critics argue that such actions have inadvertently encouraged the rogue regime and its proxy armies, contributing to increased destabilization in the Middle East.
Although Israel may not be the “little America” as its adversaries sometimes label it, events here could wield significant influence in determining who ends up in the White House next year. ■
The writer is deputy CEO – strategy and innovation for The Jerusalem Post and a senior correspondent. She also co-hosts the Inside Israeli Innovation podcast.