I never imagined that I would ever be so delighted to be proven completely wrong three and a half hours after sending in an article to The Jerusalem Post.
Yet, this is exactly what happened to me early Sunday, when a massive US attack obliterated the three most important Iranian nuclear facilities: the nuclear enrichment site at Fordow, which is located 300 feet beneath a mountain, and where until very recently Iran stored the 400 kg. of highly enriched uranium it had; the facility at Natanz, where Iran was reported to have developed and assembled centrifuges for uranium enrichment; and Iran’s nuclear research complex at Isfahan.
Much of what I had written about were the many reasons why US President Donald Trump was delaying a decision to join Israel in its attacks in the previous week on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which posed an existential threat to Israel, and rocket-launching facilities, from which Iran had been launching rockets, primarily at civilian targets all over Israel, with significant damage caused to apartment buildings and private homes, and causing some fatalities of persons who had been unable (or unwilling) to seek refuge in safe rooms and air-raid shelters.
One of the foci of my original article was the following event. Towards the evening in Israel (US midday) of Thursday, June 21, Trump’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, gave a press briefing in Washington in which she delivered a statement “directly from the president,” which said: “Based on the fact that there’s substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to [join the Israeli attack in Iran] within the next two weeks.”
This statement infuriated a majority of Israelis – supporters of both the coalition and the opposition – who were expecting the US to join the Israeli attack, and especially to send B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to drop GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator bombs (MOPs) on the Iranian enrichment site at Fordow.
Like most other Israelis, there was nothing I wanted more this past week than that Trump would decide to enter the war on our side, and this is because we are unable to prevent Iran from going nuclear in the foreseeable future on our own, without the US military and political might, and especially without its heavy bombs, and means of delivering them.
In addition, it was generally believed that unless the US joined the fighting, the war was liable to linger on for many weeks and even months.
Falling for Donald Trump's deceptive move
Ex post facto Trump’s deceptive move, apparently coordinated in advance with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, proved to be brilliant, which no one who was not let into the secret, had any way of guessing.
The reaction to the press briefing of June 21 on Channel 14, whose commentators (including Netanyahu’s colleague Yaakov Bardugo) had been talking all day about the certainty of an approaching American attack, was one of complete shock. In other words, they were in the dark, just like the rest of us.
Trump’s statement that he would make a decision within two weeks was perfectly in keeping with his usual, infuriating facon de parler, which concealed the fact that he had already taken a decision to attack, and had instructed the US military to act accordingly.
What further facilitated the deception was the fact that Trump had not concealed the fact that he would have preferred to reach a negotiated agreement with Iran on its denuclearization. For example, on May 14, he stated, “I want to make a deal with Iran, I want to do something if it’s possible, but for that to happen, it must stop sponsoring terror, halt its bloody proxy wars, and permanently and verifiably cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons.”
In fact, there were good reasons to believe that Trump might decide against the US using military force. The first is that within his own party the supporters of Make America Great Again are inclined to be isolationists, who want to stop all US involvement in any wars abroad.
Though there are also Republicans who call for the US playing an active role in world affairs, including military confrontations, a majority of Republicans appear to oppose participation in the fighting against Iran. At the same time, there is also an even larger majority among Democrats that oppose this.
Add to this the fact that there had been pressure in congressional circles to prevent Trump from deciding to attack in Iran without the approval of Congress, and that there is most probably a majority in Congress that would reject a request to approve such a move if brought to a vote in Congress.
Whether Section 8 of Article 1 of the US Constitution, which declares that Congress has the power to declare war, limits the president’s ability to use military force without Congress’s affirmative approval, remains a highly contested issue. This could have bogged down Trump’s decision to get involved in the war in Iran if he hadn’t decided to move quickly.
Another obstacle came from the direction of Europe. The UK, France, and Germany (the E3), all three of which have expressed understanding for Israel’s move against Iran, until several days ago were holding talks with Iran, at the foreign minister level, to try to work out an agreement that would prevent Iran producing nuclear weapons, by diplomatic means.
At the same time, it was known that the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had held several phone conversations with US special envoy Steve Witkoff, which could be seen as the basis for Trump’s statement last Thursday that “there’s a substantial chance of negotiations.”
Last but not least, it is no secret that Trump has dreams about receiving a Nobel Prize for Peace for his efforts to bring about peaceful solutions to various international conflicts. Just over a week ago, Pakistan announced that it was planning to nominate Trump for the prize for his work in helping to resolve the recent conflict between India and Pakistan.
There was reason to suspect that the Pakistani announcement was somehow connected to Trump’s grappling with the question whether to join Israel’s efforts to obliterate Iran’s nuclear facilities. An American military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities certainly does not tally with a Nobel Prize for Peace.
Yet despite everything, Trump decided to attack, for which we in Israel will be eternally grateful. Equally important is the fact that Netanyahu kept insisting on the need to use military means to achieve Iran’s denuclearization, and trying to get Trump to join Israel’s efforts.
We do not know what would have happened if Netanyahu had decided to reach his goals even without Trump’s active participation. Thank heavens Trump has released us from that experience.
The writer has written journalistic and academic articles, as well as several books, on international relations, Zionism, Israeli politics, and parliamentarism. From 1994-2010, she worked in the Knesset Library and the Knesset Research and Information Center.