The takeover of Syria by Ahmed al-Sharaa, former leader of Jabhat al-Nusra and now head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Once regarded as a marginal jihadist, Sharaa has advanced to a central position in post-Assad Syria, consolidating political and military control through the Syrian Salvation Government. This unexpected shift has caused mounting concern across the region, particularly due to the fragile security situation in southern Syria and the danger of violence spilling beyond the country’s borders.
One of the most troubling aspects of Sharaa’s rise is the intensification of tensions with the Druze community in Syria. The Druze, most of whom reside in the Sweida province of southern Syria, maintained relative neutrality and autonomy throughout the civil war. However, the fall of president Bashar al-Assad and the ascendancy of Sharaa’s government have disrupted these previous balances.
In recent weeks, and especially now, there have been severe clashes between Druze militias and armed Bedouin groups, as well as fighters associated with HTS. These confrontations are often inflamed by sectarian provocations and retaliations, reportedly supported by government elements. Reports from the region about targeted killings of Druze leaders and widespread civilian casualties have heightened fears of potential ethnic cleansing or mass displacement.
How it affects Israel
In all matters concerning Israel, the connection with the Druze community serves as a force multiplier in national security. The Druze community has bound its fate with the Jewish state in ties of blood and loyalty whose strength cannot be overstated. Any harm to the Druze community, including in countries that share a border with Israel, constitutes a blow to the national security of the State of Israel. Therefore, it is absolutely clear that Israel cannot remain indifferent to the events unfolding against the Druze in Syria.
The situation, as it appears now, and especially the violence by the new Syrian regime or other ethnic groups, will require Israel to intervene militarily and diplomatically, whichever avenue yields the necessary results.
While Assad's ousting removes a longtime foe deeply allied with Iran, it brings to power a Sunni Islamist regime that does not adhere to established bilateral rules. With growing concern over the spread of Sunni jihadism and concentrations of radical fighters near the northern border, Israel has increased its military presence in the Golan Heights, carried out targeted strikes against perceived threats, and maintained open communication channels with Druze leaders on both sides of the border.
Additionally, the Israeli government is working to strengthen deterrence, clarify red lines, and prevent the spread of violence into Israeli territory.
On the international policy front, it is important to emphasize that the role of the United States under President Donald Trump is pivotal in establishing new rules of engagement. The Trump administration adopted a realpolitik approach, engaging in dialogue with Sharaa’s regime and setting clear preconditions for any relaxation of sanctions or diplomatic progress.
These conditions included the destruction of chemical weapon stockpiles, actions against international terrorist organizations, removal of foreign operatives from positions of power, cooperation with American security objectives, and resolution of sensitive issues such as the disappearance of American journalist Austin Tice.
Nonetheless, recent events make it evident that Sharaa is not aligned with the direction the US seeks to pursue in the region.
Another strategic element of Trump’s policy is the need to influence Turkish involvement in the troubling developments in Syria. Notably, by lifting economic sanctions, the US has opened the door for Turkish companies to participate in Syrian economic projects. This move offered Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan incentives to deepen his country’s influence in Syrian territories and act as a moderating force against Sharaa’s expansionist ambitions.
This strategy has created a new triangle of interests: Israel as a stabilizing power on the border, Turkey as a player in the rear arena, and Syria under tight international and US supervision for long-term regulation. These arrangements must be translated into practical policies, and not remain as mere colorful meetings in international conference halls.
An unstable view for the future
Looking forward, a new and complicated reality emerges: A Sunni Islamist regime in Syria, minority communities under attack, and unstable frontiers on the borders of key states. Israel will need to persist in safeguarding its northern border and maintain ties to the Syrian minority. Current conditions are escalating, and diplomacy has yet to deliver the required results. Trump holds a significant role in shaping boundaries within this new policy framework and in preventing the region from slipping into uncontrolled jihadist chaos.
The fate of Syria and the nature of regional stability depend on whether the main actors –Israel, the US, Turkey, and other allies – can establish strict rules of engagement, enforce normative mechanisms, and preserve the fragile status quo achieved after years of protracted conflict.
The expansion of the jihadist phenomenon without the necessary restraint already poses a threat not only to Syria; it is a development whose spillover into Jordan and Lebanon could be immediate, potentially upending the entire regional order, with an emphasis on the danger that the entire Middle East could sink into an uncontrollable jihadist crisis.
The writer, an IDF Col. (res.), is a former armored brigade commander and is currently a researcher in the field of national security: military, society, and national resilience, serving as a member of the Israel Defense and Security Forum.