Syria’s Sweida Province poses risks and opportunities - opinion

The Druze community in Syria has long faced a dual threat: attacks by extremist non-state organizations, such as ISIS, and systematic exclusion and erasure by the Assad regime. In the Druze-majority Sweida province, tensions also exist with the local Syrian Bedouin minority.

On July 14, 2025, Bedouins murdered a young Druze man, which led to a series of mutual kidnappings and rapid escalation. Al-Julani’s new Islamist government sent forces to intervene, but instead they started attacking the Druze, who reject the new regime due to poor minority representation within the new government bodies.

Israel quickly issued an ultimatum to al-Julani that prevented regime forces from entering the Sweida province south of Damascus. The new Sunni regime in Damascus then responded by mobilizing Bedouin tribes and ISIS fighters to attack Druze areas with heavy weapons, including tanks, missiles, and drones - proving direct government involvement in the violence.

Qatar and Turkey support al-Julani and enable his oppression of Syrian minorities, including the Druze, Alawites, and Christians, with Qatar providing direct financing and Turkey providing operational support to build pro-Turkish militias.

The events in Sweida alarmed Israel and pro-Western regimes in the Arab world, causing Israel to use limited air power to stop the massacre. Subsequently, at President Trump’s request, the US took responsibility for managing the conflict and limited Israel’s involvement in the event, fearing it would turn into a broader conflict.

The US wants to create a ceasefire framework that would include the withdrawal of all regime forces, ISIS, and Bedouin tribes from Sweida, demilitarization of the southern provinces of Sweida, Daraa, and Quneitra, rehabilitation of Sweida, compensation for its residents, and prevention of Syrian government representatives from entering Sweida.

The Druze seek to exploit this crisis to fulfil their historic aspiration: de facto autonomy under international auspices and with Israeli support.

Israel intervened and has provided humanitarian assistance to the area because the Israeli government sees itself as morally obligated to the Druze community, particularly considering the Druze’s significant contribution to the State’s security. This connection translates into a commitment to assist community and family members of its Druze community in Syria.

But Israel also has clear security interests - to prevent the establishment of terrorist organizations on its northern border. Creating an autonomous and pro-Israel Druze enclave in Sweida could contribute to regional stabilization and strengthen Israeli deterrence.

Israel could implement various diplomatic and military measures to protect itself and the Druze community in Sweida:

1. Provide humanitarian aid, directly or through third parties like Jordan.
2. Engage in targeted strikes against immediate threats to the Druze in Sweida, mainly along the Syrian border.
3. Mobilize other states and international organizations, in coordination with the US, to prevent conflict escalation.
4. Influence the US, whose interests partially overlap with Israel’s security interests and the interests of the Druze in Syria.
5. Expose the atrocities and refute false propaganda. Al Jazeera, for example, worked to hide and deny the events - a failure that must be corrected through an international media campaign.

The Druze have sent a warning that refraining from involvement will lead to a humanitarian disaster, which the US will be responsible for. Therefore, they are looking to President Trump and the US to act by:

1. Lifting the siege on Sweida and removing terrorist forces.
2. Bringing immediate humanitarian aid and rehabilitating vital infrastructure.
3. Declaring Sweida a disaster zone and establishing an international team to investigate the atrocities that occurred there.
4. Establishing a safe humanitarian corridor - through Jordan, the Kurds, or from the Golan.

Syria serves as a competitive stage between three regional axes. Although the Iranian Axis withdrew from the area, they are unpredictable and can always act secretly to help groups, especially Islamist ones, who serve their interests. The Chaos Axis, which includes Muslim Brotherhood representatives – Qatar and Turkey – threatens conservative regimes. Finally, the Moderate Islam Axis led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt seeks to stabilize the region and strengthen the Abraham Accords.

Sweida could function as a restraining force against the extremist axis and strengthen the pro-Western regional bloc. Therefore, Israel, the US, and the world could see new opportunities, but also new risks in Syria. Helping the Druze become an independent entity could be mutually beneficial for all parties. Israel and the Druze in Syria could create an alliance, even including the Kurds and other minorities, to serve the region and the interests of the West. Of course, if handled ineffectively, these opportunities could also become risks, leading to further instability and insecurity in Syria and the Middle East.  

Dr. Col. (Res.) Anan Wahabi is a research scholar at the International Institute for Counterterrorism (ICT) at Reichman University.

This op-ed is published in partnership with a coalition of organizations that fight antisemitism across the world. Read the previous article by Dr. Omar Mohammed.