The 20-point plan proposed by US President Donald Trump to end the Gaza war contradicts almost all the principles for ending the war established by the Government of Israel, with the sole exception of the return of the hostages, which is a morally paramount, substantive, and indispensable objective in its own right, but only one of three war aims.
If the plan is implemented, Israel would effectively be prepared to conclude the campaign as just another “military round,” with Hamas remaining in Gaza, no guarantee of its disarmament or of the demilitarization of the Strip, the IDF withdrawing from almost the entire Gaza territory, Israel acquiescing to a possible return of the Palestinian Authority to administer Gaza, hundreds of billions in reconstruction funds being channeled into the Strip, and Gazans encouraged to remain in place rather than adopting a voluntary emigration program.
If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the plan solely as a diplomatic maneuver, knowing (perhaps even on the basis of intelligence) that Hamas is likely to refuse it, then that would be a welcome step.
The principal benefit of an Israeli acceptance met by Hamas’s rejection would be to bolster the Trump administration’s legitimacy for continuing the Israeli campaign until Hamas is decisively defeated.
However, if Hamas ultimately accepts the plan and it is implemented, this would constitute a blow to Israel’s national security and a form of Israeli capitulation in the war.
First, Israel would be prepared to allow Hamas to remain in Gaza. That means Hamas would not be defeated or expelled (unless its members chose that voluntarily).
Such a reality could transplant the Lebanon–Hezbollah model to Gaza, where a powerful, murderous terrorist organization dominates the territory alongside a supposedly “technocratic” and “independent” - but weak and subservient - government.
Israel would rely on a Palestinian “technocratic government,” foreign forces, and a civilian council to effect the demilitarization of the Strip, to act against Hamas’s military build-up, to destroy hundreds of kilometers of terrorist tunnels, and to prevent terrorism against it.
Moreover, according to the plan, UN agencies would be responsible for channeling humanitarian assistance into Gaza; in the absence of an Israeli presence, Hamas could once again seize control over the distribution of that assistance, as it has in areas under its authority.
Under the plan, Israel is to withdraw from almost all of Gaza, retaining only a narrow perimeter of at most a few hundred meters.
A concession of a fundamental demand
This is, of course, a concession of a fundamental Israeli demand: the requirement for Israeli security control over the Gaza Strip, including a broad perimeter. Such an arrangement does not guarantee sufficient strategic depth against terrorist tunnels and Hamas’s terrorist operations.
Israel would need to rely on foreign forces and on an independent Palestinian government to prevent the smuggling of equipment essential to the local industry, just as Israel has had to rely on UNIFIL forces in Lebanon in the face of Hezbollah’s consolidation.
If implemented, Trump’s plan would, in effect, reduce the Gaza war to another “military round” between Israel and Hamas; it would neither defeat nor eliminate Hamas as a military organization in Gaza, and would only postpone the end of the threats instead of addressing them.
Israel would be forced to return to fighting in Gaza in a few years with land forces, after having withdrawn all its forces from the Strip, after the Israeli public has accommodated itself to Hamas’s presence, grown weary of wars, and after international legitimacy has eroded, since the plan does not permit Israel to resume fighting in Gaza.
Rather than transforming the Middle East and turning Gaza into a secure place and a strategic asset through adoption of a voluntary emigration program, Israel would return the Palestinian issue to center stage and cement Hamas’s presence in the Strip, the very terrorist organization that carried out the gravest massacre against the Jewish people since the Holocaust, which would remain proudly in place to continue its operations.
Only Israeli security control over the Gaza Strip, together with freedom of action for the IDF on the ground, can ensure the disarmament of Hamas, the demilitarization of the Strip, and a guarantee that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel.
Dr. Omer Dostri, a former spokesman for the Prime Minister, is an expert in military strategy and national security, as well as a senior research fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Strategy and the David Institute for Security Policy.