Israeli towns experiencing the sharpest socioeconomic declines are those that have undergone rapid haredi-driven demographic transformations. Against this backdrop, it is easy to understand why local leaders on Israel’s periphery strongly oppose the establishment of new ultra-Orthodox towns nearby.
Yet a new study by the Shoresh Institution for Socioeconomic Research, conducted by Dr. Pavel Jelnov, points to several signs that haredim who relocate to peripheral areas are changing, albeit gradually. The study compares haredi households in Israel’s center and periphery and identifies a modest but consistent shift in behavior among those who move away from the center. These are not ideological declarations, but observable patterns reflected in the data.
In haredi households in the periphery with parents aged 35 to 39, the average number of children is 3.9, compared to a 4.8 average in the center – a gap of nearly one child per family.
Haredim in the periphery exhibit greater mobility; car ownership rates are significantly higher, and per capita monthly spending on transportation and communication is much higher than in the center. Consumption patterns differ as well, with television ownership among haredi households aged 30-39 nearly five times higher in the periphery.
Another key finding concerns education: Haredi women in the periphery are more educated, with higher rates of matriculation certificates or academic degrees (41% versus 34% in the center). These are not marginal differences; they indicate that geography itself has a tangible effect on haredi lifestyles.
Given the persistent – and in some cases sharp – declines observed in the socioeconomic indicators of towns that have undergone rapid haredi demographic expansion, the current findings must be interpreted with caution. They do not promise a positive economic turnaround, nor do they negate the well-documented risks of decline. What they do indicate is potential.
From an economic perspective, the implications are clear: Lower fertility rates reduce pressure on welfare, education, and housing systems. Combined with higher educational attainment and increased mobility, these characteristics suggest a greater potential for labor market integration, an expanded tax base, and reduced fiscal dependency. However, this potential is conditional.
Active policies required
Without active policies that translate these possibilities into productive human capital through relevant education, efficient transportation, quality employment opportunities, and integration into regional labor markets, there is little reason to expect a departure from the familiar downward economic trajectory seen in towns with quickly expanding ultra-Orthodox majorities.
Public debate over haredi towns often assumes a simple relocation of existing lifestyles to a new geographic setting. The study’s findings suggest otherwise.
Living in the periphery is related to behavioral changes. Yet this influence is neither automatic nor sufficient.
Distance, infrastructure, and the economic structure of peripheral regions can shape family and employment decisions, but only if accompanied by complementary policies. Most critical among these is a substantial upgrade in core education subjects taught to haredi children in these municipalities.
There is no doubt that establishing haredi towns in Israel’s periphery entails significant risks. Past experience points to economic decline. But when such failures occur, they are not the result of cultural inevitability, but of policy shortcomings.
The Shoresh findings allow for a more sober and nuanced reading of reality. Under certain conditions, dispersing the ultra-Orthodox to the periphery could open a window of opportunity.
However, that will only occur if the government and local authorities implement coordinated policies deliberately targeted at preventing the repeat of past declines.
Ultimately, the issue is not ideological but professional. Will the conditions be designed to change the trajectory, or will history repeat itself?
The writer is vice president of the Shoresh Institution for Socioeconomic Research and a professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.