The popular support for the Iran war being waged by Israel and the United States is very different in both countries. Could this difference ultimately affect the outcome of the war and the US-Israeli alliance in the long term?
While 73% of Israelis support the war with Iran, only 40% of Americans do. This major difference is likely unprecedented for two allies waging a war against a common enemy. The support in the United States is very low, especially when we compare it to what it was before each Gulf war, around 70% to 75%.
This difference has logical explanations. The Iranian threat is existential, or perceived as such, by a majority of Israelis across the political spectrum. Iran’s support for international terror against Jews and Israelis, its regional destabilization through its proxies constantly attacking Israel, or its calls for Israel’s annihilation while building ballistic and nuclear programs are facts, not fantasies or paranoid fears. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s weaponization of this issue is real, but it does not make Iran’s threats less real.
For Americans, the threat is theoretical and remote. Despite the administration talking about new ballistic missiles that could hit the United States and reminding the public of Iran’s role in supporting international terrorism, the danger does not seem as urgent and dire as it is for the Israelis.
Even worse, because of the previous lies to “sell” the second Iraq War with the “weapons of mass destruction” narrative, and the numerous falsehoods by the current administration since US President Donald Trump’s return to power, the government’s credibility is very low, especially among Democrats, who are also angry at Trump’s disregard for Congress, for going to war last month and on so many other occasions. This distrust is even more pronounced due to Trump’s MAGA base unifying behind the “America First” slogan, its refusal to support “eternal wars,” and, in the last presidential campaign, the Trump-JD Vance partnership campaigned on a pro-peace ticket.
The difference in popular support can therefore be easily explained, but it is still problematic because it underlines a fundamental difference between the two countries, which could weaken their alliance in the mid- to long term.
Belief that Netanyahu 'got what he wanted'
As 7% of the Democrats support this war and 77% of them believe Israel has committed “genocide” in Gaza, their fundamental distrust of Netanyahu, especially on this issue – which marked a major rift with them around the nuclear deal and president Barack Obama’s snub in March 2015 – and the belief Netanyahu “got what he wanted” on Iran, may well weaken their support for Israel, at least as long as Netanyahu is prime minister.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted that Israel played a role in the US’s entry into war, and his comment may cause an issue for Israel, beyond the Democratic Party, even if 77% of Republicans support the war as of now.
Should he see his popularity plummet among his base as the war drags on, he might be tempted to end it without achieving its goals, leaving, for instance, the regime in place.
The MAGA base rejects wars, in general, and, in particular, ones waged for another country, be it Israel or any other country. As 45% of young Republicans believe that Jews are a threat to the American way of life and as conspiracy theories about undue Jewish and Israeli influence on the US are flourishing under Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens, the war in Iran, with inconsistent justifications, Netanyahu’s presence in the US media about Iran or Rubio comments, may turn out to be extremely dangerous for Israel’s standing in the United States, which is already shaky with a very unpopular Netanyahu.
For many reasons, among them the Iranian people’s freedom, civilian and military human lives, regional stability, or worldwide economic growth, one must hope that this war is quick and successful, and a new regime emerges, one less obsessed with terror and its hatred for Israel and more with its people’s prosperity and regional stability.
One extra reason for this wish lies in Israel’s standing in the United States and, by extension, the American Jews’ safety, as the need for scapegoats may endanger them should the war turn out badly.
The writer, born and raised in France, is the correspondent of French Jewish radio, Radio J, in the US, where he has been living for 16 years. He also holds US and Israeli citizenship. His opinions are his own.