An opportunity for Gulf rapprochement

Israel enjoyed relations with Qatar in the past, with trade offices between the two countries that opened in 1996 but then closed after the Second Intifada in 2000.

Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan kisses the forehead of Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Mecca, Saudi Arabia May 30, 2019 (photo credit: BANDAR ALGALOUD/COURTESY OF SAUDI ROYAL COURT/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan kisses the forehead of Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Mecca, Saudi Arabia May 30, 2019
(photo credit: BANDAR ALGALOUD/COURTESY OF SAUDI ROYAL COURT/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
US President Donald Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, added another feather to his diplomatic cap on Tuesday when Qatari and Saudi leaders embraced at a Saudi airport. It was a highly symbolic gesture broadcast live on Saudi television, presaging peace inside the Gulf Cooperation Council. Washington had a key role in bringing about that hug.
Qatar has been blackballed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt since 2017 for what that quartet of countries said was Doha’s support for terrorist groups and getting too close to Iran. The quartet imposed a land, sea and air blockade on Qatar, cut diplomatic ties and trade, and – with the exception Egypt – expelled Qatari nationals.
The Americans, who have good close relations with all the countries involved in the spat, waded into the crisis because the family feud was inimical to American interests, chief among them being the isolation of Iran. As a result of the blockade and trade ban, Qatar sought an outlet elsewhere and moved closer to Iran and Turkey. For instance, a few months after the blockade went into effect, Qatar established full diplomatic relations with Iran.
On Monday, Saudi Arabia announced it was ending its blockade of Qatar, and on Tuesday, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani traveled to the GCC annual summit as a signal of reconciliation. Although full reconciliation may take some time, movement in that direction – besides being good for the GCC and the US – is also good for Israel.
Why? First, because it removes a potential point of friction between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Despite Israel’s significant problems with Qatar over Doha’s cozy relationship with Hamas, the tiny Persian Gulf monarchy has turned into an important channel for Israel in dealing with the Gaza Strip.
Qatar’s periodic transfer of suitcases packed with millions of dollars to Hamas in Gaza is something that Jerusalem has encouraged and supported as a way to prevent wide-ranging military confrontation. Mossad Director Yossi Cohen even reportedly made a trip to Doha last February to ensure a continuation of this aid.
At the same time, the Arab countries aligned against Qatar were worried that Israel was letting Doha have too much influence in Gaza at their expense. If there is reconciliation inside the GCC, then Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE may have less concern over Qatar’s influence in Gaza, and Qatar may have less of an interest in undermining those countries there.
Second, this move further isolates Iran and distances it from a country that of late was seen as a key Sunni Arab ally. The six-member GCC – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait – served previously as a bulwark against Iran. But it was badly weakened by the Qatari crisis. Bridging those divisions could get the GCC to take a joint stand against Iran and enhance security coordination, moves that could help fend off the Islamic Republic’s regional ambitions.
Third, this move may impact negatively on ties between Doha and Ankara, which also blossomed as a result of the Saudi-led embargo. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rushed help to Qatar overcome the embargo in 2017, and the Qataris have repaid him many times over with aid and investment. Closer ties with Egypt, the UAE and the Saudis – all rivals and very suspicious of Erdogan – could lead Qatar to cool this relationship, thereby impacting Turkey’s economy and its ability to create mischief in the region.
And finally, internal GCC reconciliation could positively impact Israeli-Qatari ties, leading Doha to take positions on Israel that are less strident and more in tune with the positions coming from Abu Dhabi, Manama and even Riyadh.
Israel enjoyed relations with Qatar in the past, with trade offices between the two countries that opened in 1996 but then closed after the Second Intifada in 2000.
There is good reason to believe that if Qatar sees the Saudis are cooperating with Israel, and the UAE and Bahrain now have relations with it, they may also want to tap into the opportunities a relationship with Israel affords and expand their existing ties with the Jewish state beyond just supplying cash to Gaza.