Does a Joe Biden win mean bye-bye Bibi? - analysis

There are nearly 240 million Americans eligible to vote in Tuesday's US presidential election. But will they also in effect be deciding the leadership of Israel? In private conversations, MKs from across the political spectrum say emphatically “yes.” They make that assumption, because they see close allies Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump as intertwined. The two men have worked more closely together than any American president and Israeli leader before them – with Trump, according to some Israeli officials, seeing Netanyahu as something of a mentor. Their policies on the Middle East are similar, as are their battles with the media, their legal problems, their complicated relationships with women and more. They have used similar slogans and signs and even shared campaign strategists. If Trump is reelected, it could give Netanyahu a boost in the polls, because many voters would want to continue taking advantage of their close relationship, though some would move further to the right to block future concessions as part of Trump's peace plan. If there is such a boost, Netanyahu may decide to take advantage of it by initiating an election. If Trump is defeated, it would leave Netanyahu weakened, which could persuade Blue and White to join the opposition in initiating an election. They would portray a “Trump-less” Netanyahu as missing a key vital organ and no longer necessary to maintain Israel's close ties with the US. Had Trump's competition in the election been Barack Obama, both a Trump victory and loss could have been painted as a Netanyahu victory. Having a US president rightly or wrongly seen as hostile to Israel would have necessitated a veteran Israeli prime minister known for his ability to stand up to the leader of the free world. But Joe Biden is not viewed by Israelis as hostile like Obama. He has a long pro-Israel track record in the Senate and refers to Netanyahu as “my friend Bibi.” And while he might have some advisers who could be viewed as problematic for Israel, it is difficult to paint him as being against the Jewish state – especially if, as expected, he initially ignores foreign policy and focuses on the domestic fight against the coronavirus. In the aftermath of a Biden victory, the Likud would immediately downplay the results. “I'll work fine with Democrats or Republicans,” Netanyahu told The Jerusalem Post in an interview in February. But Netanyahu's critics would say that if Biden wins, Netanyahu would no longer be needed, because Biden is neither exceedingly pro-Israel like Trump, nor the opposite as Obama was viewed. Blue and White officials are already making that argument now when considering how long they should remain in the government and whether the rotation between Benny Gantz and Netanyahu will actually take place next November. The fiercest Netanyahu critics would go further, declaring the prime minister a liability for Israel and lamenting the harm he has done to Israel's bipartisan relationship with the US, seen as one of the top strategic assets. There is one more scenario that must be taken into account, which is that final results will not be available on Wednesday and the winner may not be known for weeks. That could also put decisions in Israeli politics on hold. Blue and White officials have admitted that they are waiting for the results of the US election before deciding the future of their own government. If America does not end up delivering a clear verdict on Tuesday and weeks of turmoil ensue instead, Israeli politics will become an even bigger mess.

Does a Joe Biden win mean bye-bye Bibi? - analysis

If Trump is defeated, it would leave Netanyahu weakened, which could persuade Blue and White to join the opposition in initiating an election.

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