‘Growing chance Israel will strike Iran in 2012'

Military correspondent says that diplomacy will not work; the jury is still out on sanctions.

By DEBORAH DANAN
The Jerusalem Post’s military correspondent, Yaakov Katz, joins us at the Herzilya Conference 2012, where the topic of the day is Iran.
Katz opines that the international community needs to be cautious about how much faith it instills in diplomacy as a means to prevent Iran from developing its nuclear program. His claim is that Iranians are experts at fooling and toying with the West, making people believe that sincere talks are going on and in the meantime using those talks as a delay tactic while they forge ahead in achieving their nuclear aspirations.  
With regards to Iran’s relationship with Gaza, Katz says that both Hamas and Hezbollah are well-known proxies of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, receiving weaponry as well as financing. “We know that there are Iranian artillery rockets in the Gaza strip which have the ability to reach Tel Aviv. There are also sophisticated anti-tank missiles and roadside bombs. The Iranians are continuing to actively support Hamas as well as supporting embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s attempts to stay in power."
So what sort of timeframe can we expect for Iran to finally have a nuclear weapon?
According to Katz, if Iran were to go the “break-out” stage today—the so-called stage in which the Iranians enrich their uranium to 90 percent (which is military-grade level)—according to the consensus of Israeli and Western intelligence, it would take around a year for them to have a crude nuclear device. That’s what it makes it so critical to stop them at this stage.
Katz avers that Israel will take military action sometime in 2012, possibly in 2013. At the moment Israel is giving the crippling sanctions, such as the oil embargo passed by the EU or the proposed sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran, a chance to see if they could have the effect of forcing Iran to face the dilemma of either continuing with its enrichment program or abandoning it. If the sanctions prove ineffective, the IDF has the ability to set back the Iranian nuclear program by up to 3 years through military strikes.