Analysis: Shekel rallies on; may strengthen further

The shekel, which had depreciated by nearly 10% against the US dollar in the last year, has strengthened over the last week.

By SETH FREEDMAN
April 5, 2006 08:18
1 minute read.
shekels 88

shekels 88. (photo credit: )

 
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The TA-25 has enjoyed a strong two-day rally, as fears receded that Amir Peretz would become finance minister, and this sentiment filtered through to the local currency, as well. The shekel, which had depreciated by nearly 10% against the US dollar in the last year, has strengthened over the last week. Since the general election, there has been a steady appreciation from NIS 4.70 per dollar to Tuesday's close of NIS 4.625. Many technical analysts believe the upward trend will continue in the coming months. Technical analysis is the study of trading based on previous performance, with more emphasis on price movements than on the fundamentals of the stock/currency involved. This graph charts the US dollar against the shekel so what appears to show a decline is actually a decline in the dollar, or a rise in the shekel. Oli Greenspan, a London based trader at Hamilton Court Capital, described the current level as "crucial" in the short-term, due to the proximity of the shekel's value to the resistance level of NIS 4.60. Resistance refers to the price level where, historically, selling has proven to be strong enough to prevent a further advance in price. The graph shows that if the NIS 4.60 resistance level is breached, there could be positive consequences for the rallying shekel longer-term. "If the shekel breaks out [of the current range] you could see some action on the upside," commented Greenspan - who suggested that a rise through the NIS 4.60 resistance level could see the shekel strengthen to the next serious resistance level, at NIS 4.48. Given that a viable government coalition appears to be taking shape, traders will likely focus more on the charts than the political scene when taking a view on the currency's direction.

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