‘Stability voters’ shift to Likud as turnout set to decide race - analysis

As time has gone on in the campaign, “stability voters” have shifted rightward to Likud and its satellite parties, as evidenced by recent polls.

By GIL HOFFMAN
An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man walks past a Likud election campaign poster depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in Jerusalem February 25, 2020 (photo credit: AMMAR AWAD / REUTERS)
An ultra-Orthodox Jewish man walks past a Likud election campaign poster depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in Jerusalem February 25, 2020
(photo credit: AMMAR AWAD / REUTERS)
With all due respect to the Ethiopian immigrants, the taxi drivers, the cannabis enthusiasts and all the different sectors fought over by the 29 parties running in Monday’s election, there is one group that is justifiably the most sought after.
This group is the stability seekers, the voters who want to go with the victorious, those who feel fed up and fear a fourth election.
For a while, it looked like this group would go with Blue and White, because party leader Benny Gantz could potentially form a minority government, and no other coalition could be built. Blue and White’s campaign slogan, “We have to move forward,” appealed to them.
But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu relentlessly attacked the possibility of a minority government, and leaders of the Joint List confirmed every warning issued at every Likud rally. They genuinely would tie Gantz’s hands on security and diplomatic issues if he needed their support from outside the coalition.
Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman ruling out joining almost every possible coalition did not help give hope that Gantz could form a government relying on him.
As time went on in the campaign, these “stability voters” shifted rightward to Likud and its satellite parties, as evidenced by recent polls. Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc grew from 55 seats in the outgoing Knesset to 57, 58 and even 59 in Thursday’s polls.
Internal polls taken for both Likud and Blue and White reportedly found that Netanyahu could obtain the 61-seat blocking majority he seeks with the right organization on Election Day.
That organization – irgun in Hebrew – is the key to this election. Unlike the previous two elections, when money was spent on billboards and website advertising, this time the parties saved their budgets for getting out the vote on Election Day.
The Likud smartly had its polling station observers in the September election take lists of citizens who did not cast ballots. The party is focusing on bringing out as many of those voters as possible in cities that voted overwhelmingly for Likud.
These so-called “golden voters” are seen by Likud officials as the key to victory. After all, they know them by name, they know where they live, and they can have their neighbors pressure them to go out and vote this time.
On the other side, the key to defeating Netanyahu is maximizing Arab turnout. In the September election, the Arab turnout was 59.2%, which resulted in 13 seats. Joint List head Ahmad Tibi said he believed he could increase that to 64%, which could be enough for 14 or perhaps even 15 if Jewish turnout goes down.
A Tel Aviv University poll taken by Keevoon Research and Strategies, headed by Mitchell Barak and funded by the Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation, surveyed Israel Arabs.
According to the findings of the survey, 45.3% of the respondents said they intend to vote, while 14.2% do not intend to vote. Of those surveyed, 40.6% have yet to decide whether to vote, of which 26.8% are undecided and may vote, while 13.8% are undecided and unlikely to vote.
By weighting the answers and based on past experience, the turnout of Arab voters on Election Day is expected to be 60%.
TAU’s Arik Rudnitzky, who is an expert on Arab voter turnout, said there was rising confidence in the Arab population in increasing the power of the Joint List even without the formation of a minority government.
Votes for the far-right Otzma Yehudit party that will be thrown out when the party does not cross the threshold will also give more weight to Arab votes, he said. That is why Netanyahu has made such an effort to persuade right-wing voters not to cast ballots for Otzma Yehudit.
The voters casting ballots for parties that do not cross the threshold will join the Arab turnout and the “stability voters” in determining the likelihood of a government being formed and a fourth election being avoided.