EU leaders finally throw down Iran gauntlet at worst time for Tehran

In times like this, Iran is likely to lash out

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
Supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) protest as European Union foreign ministers attend an emergency meeting in Brussels, Belgium, January 10, 2020. (photo credit: REUTERS/FRANCOIS LENOIR)
Supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) protest as European Union foreign ministers attend an emergency meeting in Brussels, Belgium, January 10, 2020.
(photo credit: REUTERS/FRANCOIS LENOIR)
Iran is reeling from the loss of general Qasem Soleimani and the protests against its shooting down a Ukrainian passenger jet. And now it is facing a potential “snapback” of sanctions, as the UK, France and Germany triggered a dispute mechanism that was part of the 2015 Iran deal.
Iran’s regime must be flustered, seeing itself pressured on multiple fronts. Just a month ago, it was riding high, hoping to pressure the US in Iraq, threaten Israel from Syria and bully the Gulf states into submission. Now it has too much on its hands.
In times like this, Iran is likely to lash out. It has acted before. In May and June, it mined ships in the Persian Gulf. It attacked Saudi Arabia in September with 25 drones and nine cruise missiles. Recently, the Islamic Republic fired ballistic missiles at US bases.
But Iran will tread more carefully with Europe. It needs Europe in the Iran deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015. This deal gave the Islamic Republic largely what it wanted: sanctions relief and the ability to return to its nuclear program after a decade-and-a-half hiatus.
All Iran had to do was wait and push its success in the Middle East. When US President Donald Trump walked away from the deal in 2018, Iran still had leverage through Russia and the European states. The Iranian regime has tried to bully Europe by demanding a way around US sanctions. It has slowly ramped up pressure by enriching more uranium and beginning more processes at its Fordow facility.
Iran sought to end nuclear limits imposed by the deal after Soleimani was killed. It thought it would get sympathy in the wake of what it termed a US assassination. However, their response – firing ballistic missiles and shooting down a plane with 176 people on board by mistake – has shown that the regime’s response is faulty. It can’t respond militarily to the US because it fears real retaliation.
Iran is sliding toward a more open rift with the UK as well. It had slammed how the UK responded to the killing of Soleimani and briefly detained the UK ambassador. In addition, the regime is also holding British citizens hostage. But with Germany and France now onboard, opposing how Iran appeared to tear up the 2015 agreement, Tehran is under pressure. Russia is distracted by dealing with a crisis in Libya. Iran’s other interlocutors – such as Japan, Oman and even China – may not get it out of the jam it is in.
Now begins a crucial 15-day period in which Iran and the other signatories of the 2015 deal will see if they can get past these latest contretemps. But Tehran won’t want to climb down or surrender what it thinks are its “rights” to leave key parts of the deal. This sets up Tehran to receive “snapback” sanctions.
Iran also wants increased access to international arms markets. It is supposed to be under an arms embargo, but that embargo would end if Iran stuck to the 2015 deal. Now Iran appears to be tearing up the deal. The embargo must remain in place in 2020 rather than become relaxed.
Worse for Iran is the growing consensus between Trump and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Johnson has appeared to side with the US on a new Iran deal. With Boris riding high amid his recent election victory, Tehran knows worse is coming.
It also knows that France is in no mood to play its games after outreach to Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in August at the G7 summit. The surprise visit by Zarif that month and meeting with French leaders did not pave the way for Iran to remain in the deal.