Following recent reports of Turkey arresting alleged Mossad collaborators, Maariv spoke with Dr. Eitan Hai HaCohen Yanorjak, an expert on Turkey, who explained what caused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to change his rhetoric on Israel.
"Erdogan is once again facing internal political challenges in Turkey, and the easiest way to appeal to voters is to attack Israel against the backdrop of the war in Gaza," stated Dr. Eitan Hai HaCohen Yanorjak, an expert on Turkey from the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University.
At the end of March, Turkey will hold elections for local government, and Erdogan must achieve victory in Istanbul and Ankara," Yanorjak explained, "If he wins, he will be eligible to receive funds from the state treasury and thus finance his party activities. Besides, as the war in Gaza wages, Erdogan can play up solidarity with the Palestinian cause and gain public support. We also see this in the Mossad affair, which has been an ongoing phenomenon for more than three years, where every so often, we see Turkish authorities reporting that they have arrested "Mossad collaborators."
Why does the local Turk care about Israel when there are other local issues on the agenda, such as property taxes and education?
"The point is that you are thinking from the Israeli perspective that local and state elections do not converge, that local elections are considered a type of vote of confidence. As long as Erdogan achieves a victory in Istanbul and Ankara, he will be able to strengthen his position towards the world, and he can send a message within Turkey that, for example, he can defeat the mayor of Istanbul, who will likely become a potential candidate against Erdogan.
"In fact, he is very likely to challenge Erdogan, so even in the local context, there is deep consideration for national elections."
In your experience, Mossad affairs usually make a splash in the media and end in an anticlimactic way. Will this time be any different?
"In previous cases, we saw many detainees; though many were released, about 80% are still behind bars. To this day, Israel does not accept any responsibility, but it has been said that Israel hires companies of local detectives and activates them in small, one-off things."
How free and fair are the elections in Turkey?
"I think they are free. The general elections ended with a victory only after a second round, but the campaigns of the opposition against the government were not the same. Erdogan uses the entire infrastructure of the Turkish state to his advantage and does not allow the Turkish opposition to an equal campaign, such as by restricting them in the established media and television."
Not long ago, Erdogan wanted warm relations with Israel. What happened?
"Erdogan was raised and educated by an Islamic system. We can see how this upbringing influences him now, as we see a foreign policy that is ideological rather than pragmatic.
"That is why his speeches to parliament were very pro-Hamas, which closed doors to Israel. As a result, Erdogan will not serve as meditator in the war."
And what is happening now to the Turkish economy?
"The lira continues to tumble and harm the Turkish economy. Erdogan still needs foreign investment, and made a move against Israel because he cannot ideologically afford to do otherwise, and has essentially ended normalized relations with Israel."