Israel elections: Yamina skirting electoral threshold - poll

Both Yamina and Ra'am could help Netanyahu form a coalition or block him from doing so.

 Yamina's Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked seen in the plenum hall of the Israeli parliament during the voting in the presidential elections, in Jerusalem, June 2, 2021 (photo credit: OLIVIER FITOUSSI)
Yamina's Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked seen in the plenum hall of the Israeli parliament during the voting in the presidential elections, in Jerusalem, June 2, 2021
(photo credit: OLIVIER FITOUSSI)

Yamina would just barely pass the electoral threshold, winning just four seats if elections were held today, according to a poll published by KAN News on Sunday.

According to the poll, the Likud Party would win 34 seats, while Yesh Atid would capture 21 seats. The Religious Zionist Party would follow with 10 seats, followed by Blue and White and Shas with eight seats each.

The United Torah Judaism party would earn seven seats, while the Joint List would win six seats. Meanwhile, Labor and Yisrael Beytenu would earn five seats each, and Meretz, New Hope and Ra'am would earn four seats each.

Enough to form a coalition?

The bloc currently opposing opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu would sit at 55 seats, while the bloc supporting Netanyahu would sit at 59 seats. If incoming Yamina leader Ayelet Shaked decides to sit with Netanyahu, that would leave the opposing block with 51 seats and bring Netanyahu's bloc to 63 seats, enough to form a coalition.

Ra'am could also disrupt the split, creating a similar effect if they decide to sit with Netanyahu.

All parties voters can vote for at the ballot in Israel's March 23 election. (credit: SHLOMO BEN EZRI/CENTRAL ELECTIONS COMMITTEE)All parties voters can vote for at the ballot in Israel's March 23 election. (credit: SHLOMO BEN EZRI/CENTRAL ELECTIONS COMMITTEE)

The Eizenkot factor

Respondents were also asked how they would vote if former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot was number two on Yair Lapid's list and if Blue and White, New Hope and Matan Kahana joined together. In this case, Yesh Atid would rise to 22 seats, while the joint Blue and White, New Hope and Kahana list would win 13 seats. Meanwhile, the Likud would drop to 33 seats.

In this case, the bloc supporting Netanyahu and the bloc opposing Netanyahu would both sit at 58 seats.