The gas agreement with Lebanon, which sparked political tensions against the backdrop of the wave of attacks and clashes in the West Bank, resulted in a minor change in the bloc map ahead of the elections for the 25th Knesset in about two and a half weeks.
According to a Panels Politics poll, conducted for Maariv, it appears that after last week, when the bloc led by opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu reached 61 seats, this week it dropped to 60 seats following the strengthening of Yesh Atid at the expense of the Religious Zionist party, so that once again there is no clear winner between the blocs in the coming election drama.
According to the new poll, the Bayit Hayehudi party led by Ayelet Shaked strengthened to three mandates, but is still below the electoral threshold.
However, if the head of the opposition and the Likud, MK Binyamin Netanyahu, were to come out with a call to vote for Bayit Hayehudi, the list would pass the electoral threshold and the bloc led by Netanyahu would then have a majority of 62 MKs, according to the poll.
The poll found that the Likud party would earn 32 seats, Yesh Atid would earn 24 seats, the Religious Zionist party would earn 13 seats and the National Unity party would earn 12 seats.
Meanwhile, Shas would earn eight seats, the United Torah Judaism party would earn seven seats, Yisrael Beytenu would earn six seats, Meretz and Labor would earn five seats each and Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am would earn four seats each.
This would leave the Netanyahu-led bloc with 60 seats and the bloc making up the current coalition with 56 seats.
What parties will not make it into the next Knesset?
According to the poll, the Bayit Hayehudi party would still be under the electoral threshold with 2.7% of the vote. (The electoral threshold sits at 3.25% of the vote)
The Calcalit party, the Balad party, the Economic Freedom party, the Free, Democratic Israel party and the Fiery Youth party would also not reach the electoral threshold.
In response to the scenario in which Netanyahu would call for voters to support the Bayit Hayehudi party led by Shaked, the results would change to: Likud - 31 seats, Yesh Atid - 23, Religious Zionist - 12, National Unity - 11, Shas - 8, United Torah Judaism - 7, Yisrael Beytenu - 6, Meretz - 5, Labor - 4, Hadash-Ta'al - 4, Ra'am - 4, and Bayit Hayehudi with 4 seats.
707 panel members participated in the poll which was conducted by Menachem Lazar, the director of Panels Politics. The poll was conducted on a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, both Jews and Arabs.
The survey was conducted on October 12-13, and the maximum sampling error is 3.7%.