For weeks, Israel has been threatening to operate in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials, preparations have been underway, and the operation is imminent. The international community, spearheaded by the US, is on standby, raising increasing alarm regarding military action in the area that has become home to over one million Gaza residents who have been displaced from their homes as a result of Israel’s war on Hamas.
Even as international pressure mounts, Netanyahu has insisted Israel’s path to “total victory” must go through Rafah, which is considered the hub of Hamas’ terrorist activity. To relieve some of the pressure, the Israeli leader agreed to send a delegation to Washington in order to present the plans and get American feedback.
Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza came after the surprise attack carried out by the terrorist group on Oct. 7 of last year. The goal stated by Netanyahu was to strip Hamas of its military capabilities and release the hostages that were taken on that day. Over 250 people, the majority of them Israeli civilians, were kidnapped during the attack. One hundred twenty-three have been released, a few as a result of a military operation and the majority as part of a temporary truce with Hamas in the first weeks of the war. According to Israeli intelligence, at least 30 of those still being held are believed to be dead.
American-Israeli discussions on Rafah
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected in Israel on Friday, where he will likely discuss both Israel’s intentions regarding Rafah and the status of the talks currently being held in Qatar, which are aimed at securing a hostage deal and some sort of a cease-fire.
As Israel continues to plow through the Gaza Strip since October with its air force, navy, and ground forces, it has left Rafah for last. According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), it has already destroyed 18 of Hamas’ 24 battalions. The remaining Hamas forces are believed to be in Rafah, essentially meaning that it still has an organized military force standing, making it a critical focal point of the military operation.
“It will take some time to operate in Rafah,” Netanyahu said in a statement on Wednesday, hours after speaking to US President Joe Biden. “There are times when we have agreed with our friends and times when we have disagreed. But in the end, we have always done what is essential for our security, and we will do so this time as well.”
“The issue of Rafah has become highly sensitive,” said Col. (res.) Eldad Shavit, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former senior intelligence officer. “This is partly because of Netanyahu’s repeated statements on the matter, but also because it is a very problematic issue that involves continued Hamas presence and a porous border with Egypt that enabled a lot of weapons smuggling into Gaza through Rafah.”
The southernmost city of Gaza, Rafah, also serves as Gaza’s border with Egypt. Israel would like to assert control over a narrow strip of land called the Philadelphi Corridor, which is approximately 13 kilometers (8 miles) long and located along that border.
The narrow Philadelphi corridor has proven critical to Hamas’ efforts to gain strength since it violently took over the Gaza Strip from the hands of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in 2007. Israel, therefore, views the area as critical to its progress in toppling Hamas.
“Without conquering Rafah, Israel cannot win the war,” said Professor Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. “But because of how Israel is managing the war and the international pressure, it might have to give up on doing so. Without taking over Rafah and essentially leaving Hamas intact, this is a victory for Hamas.”
This could have a crucial effect on Israel’s deterrence in the region, as its many adversaries have been watching it carefully since Oct. 7.
Israel also faces a major humanitarian challenge when contemplating a ground operation there.
The Rafah population before the war was estimated at approximately 300,000 residents. It is now believed to have surpassed 2 million, as those displaced because of Israel’s military operation in the rest of the Gaza Strip headed to the southern city weeks ago. Much of the humanitarian aid currently flowing into Gaza is through Rafah, raising the stakes of an operation threatening the already delicate humanitarian situation there.
According to Inbar, Israel should have planned its war in Gaza differently.
“The army should have operated in a tong movement and been present in Rafah much earlier on,” he told The Media Line. “Pushing the civilian population to Rafah was not constructive to the military plans.”
Netanyahu has said several times that he has approved the military plans for an operation in Rafah. Meanwhile, as the army waits for the green light, it has significantly reduced its presence in the Gaza Strip. Many of the hundreds of thousands of reservists who were called up at the beginning of the operation have been released, and many regular army members have also been deployed elsewhere.
“As of now, the army is not ready to immediately execute such a plan,” said Professor Eitan Shamir, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
In the background are the negotiations to release the hostages, which make an operation unlikely until they conclude, as an invasion would likely bring them to a halt. While polls have shown Israelis are mixed regarding the price Israel should pay in order to secure their release, there is widespread sentiment for the plight of the many Israelis in the hands of Hamas. Families of the hostages and many supporters continue to stage weekly demonstrations, trying to pressure the government to make a deal with Hamas.
“The Israeli leadership will want to show it tried everything to release the hostages before entering Rafah because there are reasonable grounds to believe that the safety of the hostages will be in jeopardy once such an operation begins,” Shamir told The Media Line.
Hamas senior leadership, including its chief commander Yahya Sinwar, are believed to be hiding in tunnels in the Rafah area, surrounded by Israeli hostages serving as human shields.
“Israel's threats about Rafah may be a way to pressure Hamas on the hostage issue,” Shavit told The Media Line. “The Americans view the deal as highly important because it will come with a truce. It is their hope that during this truce, a more permanent cease-fire and a better solution to the humanitarian crisis may be reached.”
International pressure has also come from Canada, which announced Wednesday that is imposing an arms embargo on Israel. While Israel does not heavily rely on Canadian weapons, the announcement could have a cumulative effect. European leaders gathered in Brussels on Thursday. They are expected to call for an immediate cease-fire and warn Israel should it attack Rafah.
“These are all bad omens. The international pressure is zeroing in on Israel,” said Shamir.
Public opinion in Israel is still very much in favor of the war on Hamas. As Israelis recovered from the initial shock of Hamas’ attack, their determination to eliminate the threat on the southern border grew.
“Israel will not be able to proclaim it has Gaza under control without curtailing Hamas’ operations in Rafah and preventing the smuggling from there,” said Shavit. “If the cease-fire talks fail, there will be increased public pressure to operate in Rafah because that is the only thing that hasn’t been done yet.”
But Netanyahu is well aware of Israel’s dependency on the US, both in the international arena and with extensive military support. Therefore, the green light for the army has yet to be given, and it may remain red for a very long time.
“Israel is very far, both militarily and politically, from an operation in Rafah,” Shamir added. As Israel pauses, many things can change, and while Rafah is a crucial part of its war to eradicate Hamas, it might have to give up on it.