Israelis were stunned by much that happened around the world immediately following Hamas’s savage October 7 attack.
They were stunned by outpourings of support for Hamas in many cities around the world after the terrorist invasion – even before Israel began its ground incursion into the coastal strip.
They were surprised at posters of the hostages being ripped off walls in cities and campuses around the world. They were shocked by a sharp spike in antisemitism.
But what stunned them the most was the strong push for a Palestinian state that began within weeks of the most brutal attack on Jews since the Holocaust.
For many, this seemed completely counterintuitive.
As Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer said in an ABC interview in early December: “I know that everybody is racing forward right now to try to establish a Palestinian state. The people of Israel don’t even understand that because we just suffered the equivalent of 20 9/11s. And I think the last thing you want to do is send a message to any terror group that the way you’re going to achieve some sort of aim is to perpetrate a massive terror attack.”
In other words, forget that Gaza has for all intents and purposes been an independent Palestinian entity since Israel withdrew in 2005 and removed every army installation, soldier, and settler. Never mind that Hamas, which took control of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in a 2007 coup, used the territory not to build a Palestinian Singapore on the Mediterranean, but rather an Iranian-backed launching pad for attacks on Israel with billions of dollars invested in sophisticated weaponry and a mind-boggling maze of underground tunnels from which to attack.
Forget all that. The world, within weeks of Hamas’s barbarism, once again became intoxicated with the idea of a Palestinian state, thinking that this will be the magic potion, the panacea, the answer to all the Middle East’s problems.
It began with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez saying in November that if the EU does not recognize a Palestinian state, Spain might do so unilaterally.
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron then followed suit not long after, saying that the UK should consider recognizing an independent Palestinian state, including in the United Nations, after a Gaza ceasefire and long before – and here’s the rub – the outcome of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
“It could be something that we consider,” Cameron said. “What we need to do is give the Palestinian people a horizon toward a better future, the future of having a state of their own.”
The PA, sensing the international mood, decided as a result to try something they tried and failed to do in 2011: gain acceptance as a full UN member state.
Unless the Palestinians back down at the last minute, a Palestinian bid for full membership is expected to be voted on either Thursday or Friday in the UN Security Council.
The US, however, is expected to cast its veto. US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield hinted as much on Wednesday, saying she did not see a UN resolution recommending the PA become a full UN member as helping to lead to a two-state solution.
“We do not see that doing a resolution in the Security Council will necessarily get us to a place where we can find... a two-state solution moving forward,” she said.
Thomas-Greenfield, however, added that US President Joe Biden had said categorically that Washington supports a two-state solution and was working on the ground to get there as soon as possible.
But that the US will not allow this measure to pass shows that despite tensions and disagreements with Israel over the war in Gaza and the settlements, the US has not abandoned its long-held position that the only way to get to a Palestinian state is through negotiations.
The US remains committed to the idea that a workable solution cannot be imposed from the outside – something the Palestinians have been trying to do unsuccessfully for decades.
Had Israel not come under attack from Iran on Saturday night, and had the world not been on edge since then, anxiously waiting – and debating – if and how Israel should respond, then this bid at the UN would have garnered much more attention than it has, both in Israel and abroad. But the Iranian attack has bumped the Palestinian UN bid down toward the bottom of the news cycle.
Countries seeking admission to the UN need a recommendation by the Security Council and then a vote of approval from two-thirds of the members in the 193-seat General Assembly.
When it became clear to the Palestinians in 2011 that they would not get the nine votes they needed in the Security Council to recommend full membership, they did not force a vote, although their application to the Security Council remained pending. Instead, they went to the General Assembly and won nonmember “observer state” status, similar to that of the Vatican.
Earlier this month, the Palestinians renewed their pending application to the Security Council, and the Security Council committee on the admission of new members met twice last week on the issue.
The committee, according to Reuters, issued a report on Tuesday, saying it was unable to make a “unanimous recommendation” on the application – something that happened in 2011 as well – all but dooming the bid.
Nevertheless, this time – unlike in 2011– the Palestinians are likely to push for a vote to isolate the US on this issue and argue that the whole world wants to see a Palestinian state recognized by the UN, and only the US stands in its way. The US, meanwhile, would like to get another six countries to join in either voting against or abstaining so it does not need to use its veto.
The cost of peace or ground for future war?
The PA blasted the US for its position on the matter, with spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh saying on Wednesday that no less than regional and world peace and stability depends on the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.
Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel Saturday night, however, showed just how vacuous Abu Rudeineh’s statement is – as if the Iranian desire to destroy Israel, or its hegemonic designs in the region, would disappear if only the PA received a state.
On the contrary, one could argue that Iran would then try to control that state and turn it into a springboard for attacks by Islamic extremists against the Jewish state. Anyone doubting that need look only at Hamas and the Gaza experience.