The government survived a serious crisis last week when it managed to strike down a preliminary bill proposal vote to disperse the Knesset. The three haredi factions in the coalition had threatened to topple the government over its delay in passing a law to regulate haredi IDF service.
The crisis split the haredi vote. Two of the Hassidic Agudat Yisrael’s MKs supported the Knesset dismissal, and Housing Minister Yizhak Goldknopf resigned his position as Housing Minister.
However, MKs from the Lithuanian Degel Hatorah and Sephardic Shas voted with the government and opposed the Knesset dispersal bill, after reaching a tentative agreement with Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman MK Yuli Edelstein over haredi IDF service.
Approximately 24 hours after the Knesset dispersal bill fell, Israel struck Iran. Both Edelstein and Shas MK Aryeh Deri knew about the timing of the attack in advance.
Since then, the haredi MKs have largely remained silent. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appointed Tourism Minister Haim Katz as interim housing minister, hoping that Goldknopf would return at some point.
Netanyahu did the same when National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir left the government in January in protest of the hostage deal that was struck at the time – the ministries held by members of Ben-Gvir’s party were given to Katz for safekeeping, and were given back once Ben-Gvir returned to the government in March.
The problem for the haredi parties is that time is working against them. In July, the IDF plans on sending out 54,000 draft orders, to all eligible haredi men who have yet to receive them. The IDF will also tighten enforcement procedures, putting thousands of haredim at risk of sanctions and even arrest if they do not heed the draft orders.
On the other hand, with a public atmosphere of solidarity similar to post-October 7, haredi MKs will be criticized if they bring up the issue again, or issue new threats.
The scenarios vary and largely depend on the length and intensity of the Iranian front. If operations against Iran end in the next two weeks, the haredim may issue a new demand to anchor the agreement they reached with Edelstein into law, and pass that law by the end of the Knesset summer session in late July.
Haredi MKs may decide again whether or not to remain in government
However, if the war’s intensity remains at or near its current level, haredi MKs may consult with spiritual leaders once again in order to decide whether or not to remain in government. There may be a split between Shas and the others, as Deri was part of the ministerial team that oversaw the strike against Iran, and may therefore convince Shas spiritual leaders to see it through and not leave the government.
With Shas, the coalition still enjoys a 61-MK majority, but will still find it harder to function with such a small majority. Here enters the question of National Unity, led by MKs Gantz and Eisenkot.
The two led their party into the government after October 7, citing the need for national unity and for experienced hands at the steering wheel.
Gantz has said that at the moment he has no intention of returning to the government, but he didn’t rule it out completely. Although unlikely, if the security situation remains as is and Netanyahu loses some or all of the haredi parties, there is a chance that the two will make a similar move.