The Israel Defense Forces have been fighting Hamas as part of Operation Gideon’s Chariots since mid-May. The operation was approved in early May as part of the response to the ceasefire not being renewed in March. Now it appears that the IDF has retaken around seventy-five percent of Gaza.
However, it should be recalled that the IDF believed it had largely defeated Hamas last year as well. Now the IDF has once again defeated several Hamas brigades in Gaza.
Yossi Yehoshua, writing at Ynet, noted that “fighting eliminates senior Hamas terrorists, three brigades, destroys terror infrastructure, reshaping Gaza’s battlefield, yet the war’s end remains elusive.” The reference to three brigades is interesting.
After the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, it was believed that Hamas had around 30,000 fighters, organized in five brigades. These included 24 battalions or 140 companies of fighters. The brigades include the Rafah Brigade, the Khan Younis Brigade, the Central Camps Brigade, and two brigades in northern Gaza.
Now let’s unpack some math. By late November 2023, the IDF was already saying that it had defeated the Hamas battalions in northern Gaza. These included at least 10 battalions. By mid-January 2024, the IDF estimated it had eliminated 9,000 Hamas fighters, which included two brigade commanders killed, 19 battalion commanders, and 50 company commanders.
The IDF kept up this rosy assessment in the spring of 2024. The Washington Post reported in late March 2024 that 20 of the Hamas 24 battalions had been dismantled.
By April , as the report noted, “Israeli officials have said that 18 of Hamas’s 24 original battalions in the Gaza Strip have been dismantled, meaning they do not function as an organized military unit, although smaller cells still exist.” The IDF went into Rafah in May and defeated more Hamas units.
By late May 2024, the Rafah Hamas brigade and battalions were defeated; “IDF says terrorists near defeat in Rafah, fighting now limited to one neighborhood,” The Times of Israel reported.
Even though Hamas was supposedly defeated and down to one brigade and a few battalions, it suddenly was able to re-appear in northern Gaza with thousands of fighters.
The IDF went back into Jabaliya and northern Gaza between October and December 2024. Hamas was, once again, defeated there after some 70,000 civilians had to leave. Hamas had strengthened in August 2024, CNN reported. It rebuilt brigades and returned to some areas. It recruited more people.
From January to March 2025, there was a ceasefire in Gaza. The IDF resumed limited operations in March and April 2025, returning to a border buffer zone, parts of the Netzarim corridor, and also Khan Younis.
The Morag corridor was created in southern Gaza. By mid-May, the IDF was ready to launch a much larger operation against Hamas with elements of five IDF divisions. When this Gideon’s Chariots operation began, the IDF also began enabling humanitarian aid again. On May 26, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation began delivering food as well.
Nevertheless, the IDF has had to redefeat Hamas units. First, it had to defeat them in Rafah again. After having eliminated some 900 Hamas fighters in the spring and summer of 2024, it seems that Hamas returned. Or perhaps Hamas never left.
“The offensive in Gaza has reached its stated goals and - unless the government decides to expand it - as it awaits a new Hamas response to the efforts of mediators to secure a ceasefire and hostage release deal, the IDF will hold the lines assigned to them,” Yehoshua wrote on July 29.
He noted that 41 IDF soldiers have been killed since mid-May. "They died in a war to defeat three Hamas brigades and in the effort to free the hostages,” a commander was quoted as saying by Yehoshua.
He also noted that Mohammed Sinwar was killed in the last several months, depriving Hamas of yet another commander. In addition, the Rafah brigade commander, Mohammad Shabana, was killed.
Another 8 battalion commanders and 39 Hamas company commanders were killed. Many of these units have already replaced their commanders once or twice during the war.
Rafah no longer exists
Yehoshua adds, “The Gaza Strip has been transformed: Rafah no longer exists, neither above nor below ground, with the IDF destroying all terror infrastructure and tunnels in the city. Much of Khan Younis, except for a sensitive area and a humanitarian zone, has met a similar fate.
In northern Gaza, from Beit Hanoun through Beit Lahia and Al-Atatra to the outskirts of Gaza City, little remains. This was not a series of raids and withdrawals but a methodical, systematic operation, albeit slow.”
Hamas appears to continue to recruit. Its forces are mostly confined to the 25 percent of Gaza that Hamas continues to control. It controls the Central Camps area: Deir al-Balah, Maghazi, Nuseirat, and Bureij. It also has forces in Gaza City.
The rest of Gaza is ostensibly controlled by the IDF. Around two million Gazans have been evacuated to the areas that Hamas controls, as well as the Mawasi humanitarian area near Deir al-Balah in southern Gaza.
As such, Hamas can draw on these 2 million people for recruits. Most Gazans are young, with many under the age of 25. This means Hamas just needs to recruit a few percent, and it has many forces.
Israel’s Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer posted on July 28 a clip on X where he speaks with former US Ambassador David Friedman. This was apparently from a segment that was posted on July 24 as part of the One Jewish State podcast.
“No outside force will be able to take control of Gaza if there are still 20,000 Hamas terrorists running around the territory. No investor will rebuild Gaza if Hamas remains, and things could flare up again. This is our opportunity to put Gaza on a different track and ensure security for decades to come,” Dermer noted in his July 28 post.
If Hamas still has 20,000 men, that would appear to indicate that it has made up for many of its losses in 2023 and 2024. It has lost many brigades and battalions, but continues to refill the ranks. The new recruits may not be able to replace the hardened terrorists who planned October 7. Nevertheless, Hamas has not collapsed.