Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot has reached a new high of 14 seats in the latest Maariv poll, even as Israel faces mounting tensions with Iran and deepening political divisions at home.
Despite shifts among individual party leaders, the overall balance between the blocs remains unchanged: 60 seats for the opposition and 50 for the coalition.
The survey, conducted by Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar in cooperation with Panel4All, indicates that Israel’s political map remains largely frozen amid continued security concerns with Iran.
While Eisenkot gained seats, former prime minister Naftali Bennett's numbers slipped slightly.
Full breakdown of projected seats
Respondents were asked: If the following parties run in the next Knesset election, who would you vote fo?
According to the results, Likud would win 26 seats, followed by Bennett 2026 with 19 and Yashar! with 14. The Democrats would receive 11 seats, while Otzma Yehudit would secure nine. Yisrael Beytenu, Shas, and Yesh Atid would each win eight seats, and United Torah Judaism would receive seven. Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would each garner five seats.
Blue and White (2.6%), The Reservists (1.9%), Religious Zionism (2.2%), and Balad (1.5%) would not pass the electoral threshold.
Arab parties' merger would not shift bloc balance
According to the poll, a merger of the Arab parties would increase the joint Arab list’s representation to 14 seats, up from 10 today. However, such a move would actually push the opposition bloc further from securing a 61-seat majority.
As in the previous survey, the opposition bloc (excluding Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am) stands at 60 seats, compared to 50 for the coalition.
Bennett 2026 dropped by one seat to 19, while Eisenkot’s Yashar! climbed to its highest level yet, with 14 seats.
Bennett–Eisenkot joint run scenarios
The poll also examined two scenarios in which Bennett and Eisenkot run together on a joint list.
If Bennett were placed at the top of the list, the party would receive 32 seats, one fewer than the two parties would win running separately. If Eisenkot were placed first, the joint list would receive 33 seats, identical to their combined total if they ran independently.
In both scenarios, the broader bloc balance remains unchanged: 50 seats for the coalition and 60 for the opposition, excluding the 10 seats held by the Arab parties. This matches the baseline scenario tested in the poll without a joint Arab list.
Public opinion on opposition's Knesset boycott and Iranian strikes
The poll also examined public attitudes toward recent political and security issues.
Fifty-three percent of Israelis believe it was incorrect for the opposition to boycott a festive Knesset session with the Prime Minister of India over the non-invitation of the president of the Supreme Court. Twenty-four percent believe the boycott was justified, while 23% have no opinion.
In addition, 59% of respondents believe that a US decision not to strike Iran would be a very bad outcome for Israel, arguing that it would be preferable to attack and dismantle Iran’s military capabilities. Another 23% view such a decision as positive for Israel, saying it would prevent war and major damage. Eighteen percent are unsure.
The poll was conducted on February 25–26 among 501 respondents representing a sample of Israel’s adult population aged 18 and over, including both Jews and Arabs. The maximum margin of sampling error is 4.4%.