Buckle up for the ugliest election Israel has ever known - analysis

Here is one thing that should be immediately clear: The next three months are going to be some of the ugliest in Israel's history. It is true that the last two years were no picnic. Israel went through three election campaigns and two years of mudslinging and fighting between political parties that constantly failed to find a way to work together for the benefit of the true sovereign power in this country – the Israeli people. It is also true that Israel is divided like never before in recent history. The old Sephardi-Ashkenazi ethnicity card is thrown around once again, the Right continues to look down on the Left, and the Left continues to mock the Right. There is the pro-Bibi camp and the anti-Bibi camp just like there was in the last three elections. This time, though, there are two big differences that will set the tone for the rhetoric we are going to hear over the next few months. The first difference is that Benjamin Netanyahu is facing for the first time two strong adversaries to his right. While Benny Gantz put up a formidable fight over the last three elections, it was mostly from the Center-Left. He had very few right-wing voters, and it was fairly easy for Netanyahu to depict him as weak and as a “leftist,” messages that played well with his own Likud voter base. This time, though, not only has Naftali Bennett built up a strong following – mostly due to his championing of small businesses during the coronavirus crisis – but there is now a party led by former longtime Likudnik Gideon Sa'ar that is looking more and more like a newer and cleaner version of Likud. According to polls, the two parties could bring in as many as 33 seats in a future Knesset, more than the Likud's 28. Matched with partners from the Center, that could be enough to deny Netanyahu a return to the Prime Minister's Office. The second difference is Netanyahu's trial, which is set to shift into high gear in February when the Jerusalem District Court begins to hear testimony in the three cases against the prime minister for bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Netanyahu will likely try to use the election to get the court to delay proceedings. But if he fails and the court insists on starting, the public will see its prime minister in court on almost a daily basis, not exactly the images Netanyahu will want circulating just weeks before an election. Because of this, Netanyahu will go as negative as possible. He will, of course, play up his success in bringing vaccines to Israel (he does deserve a lot of credit for that), and he will want those vaccines to be what people remember when they vote. It might help a bit, but the crisis caused by this virus is not going away that fast. There are still 800,000 Israelis out of work and many small businesses still barely holding on. As a result, the innuendos he pushed ahead of the April 2019 election about Gantz being susceptible to extortion after his cellphone was allegedly hacked by Iran will end up sounding parve compared with what we should expect to hear about Bennett and Sa'ar. The attacks will be harsh and constant. It is true that all of the last three elections for Netanyahu were important fights for political survival. This time, though, he will literally be fighting for his freedom. A loss means a trial like a regular Israeli citizen. There is no ministerial role for him since he cannot serve as a minister once indicted, and there is no realistic chance that as an MK he gets immunity from the Knesset to avoid his trial. This leaves him with two options: Strike a deal with the attorney-general, if one is still on the table, or win the election and establish a government that will pass legislation granting him immunity. There is nothing else except a trial that includes the risk of a conviction and maybe even jail time. Those are high stakes for anyone, especially a sitting prime minister. Buckle up. This is going to get ugly.

Buckle up for the ugliest election Israel has ever known - analysis

Two big differences from the previous elections will set the tone for the rhetoric we are going to hear over the next few months.

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