Netanyahu trial delay leaves him with the 'Biden approach' - analysis

The decision by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judges on Monday to accept his request to deal with technical issues before setting a date for the prosecution to question its star witnesses may have seemed technical.

But the decision made it almost definite that the prosecution’s case against the prime minister will not be heard before Israelis cast their ballots, which looks like a victory for Netanyahu, who already knew he would not get to present his side of the story before Election Day.

And it may have also decided Netanyahu’s strategy for the March 23 election.

Until the judges’ decision, Netanyahu had two choices of strategy: the Donald Trump approach and the Joe Biden approach.

The Trump approach is more fun. It involves stirring up your political base, getting them angry and using that anger to motivate them to vote.

Netanyahu started using this approach on Sunday, when he warned of a witch hunt and a conspiracy of the courts and opposition leader Yair Lapid to bring down the Right and bring the Left to power.

To use this approach, he needed his trial to begin in earnest. His cameo appearance at the court on Monday does not count. He needed the part of his trial when he will be spending much of the week in court to begin.

Had that happened, Netanyahu could have continued campaigning against that conspiracy and waited for those purported efforts to bring him down to raise him up. With the court’s decision on Monday, Bibi lost his boomerang.

Without the Trump approach, he is left with the Biden approach of painting himself as the stabilizing, statesmanlike leader needed in turbulent times. Netanyahu already started this campaign weeks ago, and he used it again in an ad the Likud released Monday night.

But this approach is a big gamble for three reasons.

First of all, to use such a campaign, he needs to paint himself as winning the battle against the coronavirus. Vaccinating half the population by Election Day is a good way of doing that, but mutations and a death toll approaching 6,000 mar that message and make it unconvincing.

Secondly, he needs to look more worldly than his competition. Going to Morocco, Bahrain or Dubai is a good way of doing that. But what if US President Joe Biden says something that can be interpreted as anti-Netanyahu and interferes in Israel’s election, like so many of his predecessors have done over the past three decades? That would make Netanyahu appear to be much less of a statesman.

Finally, portraying the prime minister as a unifying figure is a hard message to sell to people who have seen so much of his divisiveness.

If this approach is too hard to persuade voters, then it is possible that after the election, we will look back at Monday’s decision as very far from technical. It could be seen as what ultimately decided the election.