What is Netanyahu really nervous about? Spoiler: It’s not the state budget

While no one really knows how long the trial will run, senior legal officials estimate that it will carry on until at least the middle of 2022 and possibly even longer.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB
PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu. (photo credit: REUTERS)
PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu.
(photo credit: REUTERS)
Some say the coalition crisis between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Benny Gantz is about budget differences; others claim it is the rotation and others say it is just about turf and who will get to set the tone of the government.
Another narrative is that Netanyahu is trying to secure political immunity so he cannot be forced from office on competence grounds once his corruption trial moves into high gear in January.
While no one really knows how long the trial will run, senior legal officials estimate that it will carry one until at least the middle of 2022 and possibly even longer.
True, the High Court of Justice green-lighted Netanyahu to continue serving as prime minister despite being indicted.
But, the court left open the door to parties to try to oust Netanyahu at a later date if the trial eventually overwhelms his ability to govern and renders him legally unfit for public office.
No one really knows how Netanyahu will combat the many challenges he faces – the spread of the coronavirus, the recession, Gaza, Iran, Syria and more – while being required to spend three days a week in a courtroom.
Part of the answer might be that defendants can get exemptions from having to attend every hearing. The fact is that until now, Netanyahu only had to attend one of his two hearings.
Still, the prime minister will probably spend a minimum of four months (not necessarily consecutively) in court during the extended trial.
It seems Netanyahu fears that somewhere during this period, the opposition and anti-corruption NGOs that have already petitioned the High Court, will return and ask the justices to suspend him until the end of his trial.
In such a scenario, foremost on the justices’ minds will be the question of how the country will look if they suspend Netanyahu.
Under the current rotation coalition deal, Gantz is alternate prime minister and due to become prime minister in November 2021. As a result, if the court rules to suspend Netanyahu in the Spring or Summer of 2021, the justices can claim that they merely moved the date up a bit.
The High Court can then say that it did not fundamentally alter the voters’ or even Netanyahu’s own will.
But what would happen if Netanyahu alters the setup reached in the coalition agreement with Blue and White, which contains a Basic Law that he would share power with Gantz regardless of any court ruling?
What if either now or in November (presuming the Likud and Blue and White government survives), Gantz, fearing that he would disappear in a new election and as a result retreats from his November 2021 claim to becoming prime minister?
In that scenario, the High Court would face an entirely different situation.
Suddenly, if the court wanted to suspend Netanyahu, it would be overturning the will of the voters and the parties.
It would also not be entirely clear who would replace Netanyahu and such a ruling might, as a result, lead to new elections.
The High Court made it clear in its May ruling that it did not want to be the cause of new elections if the political class had arrived at a way to set up a government, however imperfect the path.
That is not the same as absolute legal immunity.
But there is no question that if Netanyahu weakens Gantz’s claim to the prime minister rotation deal, he will have a better chance of staring down the court and potentially preventing it from intervening even once his trial enters high gear.
Underneath all of the smoke and mirrors, this might be what is really at stake in the current coalition standoff.